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Basically the case is about how Fallon comes up with unique, interesting ways to solve their client’s marketing challenges. Fallen is a well know advertising company. It was founded in 181 and they have won many advertising awards including two “Agency of the Year” awards given by Advertising Age magazine. The reasons why Fallon are successful are because of two reasons. One is because of their employees, and second is because of their culture varieties. In addition, the case also gives an example of Fallon’s work, like how Fallon reinvents the image of Lee brand jeans to teens by using Buddy Lee and contributes on BMW’s The Hire.

The biggest challenge Fallon have to face is to come up with something people haven’t seen before constantly. The differentiation is the main thing here. Customers are greatly diverse and generally, they get bored easily. So Fallon has to create advertisements that catch their attention right away and give them the “Wow, that is cool!” feeling.

One alternative for this problem is to see the customers as an individual rather than a big group. What I mean is that each customer has different and frequently changing interests. The solutions to this idea are many. Fallon could do surveys on what people are interests in currently or they can ask people directly about what they like and don’t like about the product.

I don’t really know Fallon that much but it seems that Fallon attracts young markets most of the time. Creativity has a big part to attract this type of markets because young people’s interests are constantly changing. Therefore I conclude that there are no precise ways to attract the young markets because they are greatly diverse. Ironically, diversity is the answer. Generally, young people want to be different than the others so I think market observation is the best way to find the information. Fallon could send observers to monitor clubs, malls, and other places where young people hang out. By doing this, Fallon could gain information on what’s in, what’s not, what would they like, and many else. This information will benefits all business corporation.

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Please note that this sample paper on Fallon Worldwide is for your review only. In order to eliminate any of the plagiarism issues, it is highly recommended that you do not use it for you own writing purposes. In case you experience difficulties with writing a well structured and accurately composed paper on Fallon Worldwide, we are here to assist you. Your cheap custom college paper on Fallon Worldwide will be written from scratch, so you do not have to worry about its originality.

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If you order your custom term paper from our custom writing service you will receive a perfectly written assignment on EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS. What we need from you is to provide us with your detailed paper instructions for our experienced writers to follow all of your specific writing requirements. Specify your order details, state the exact number of pages required and our custom writing professionals will deliver the best quality EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS paper right on time.

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Eugene Fama was an undergraduate student at Tufts University when he first began to develop an interest for economic theory (Tuft’s E.Newz). Mr. Fama worked for a professor who was trying to develop a “buy - sell” formula for the securities market based on price momentum (News-School). The phenomena accompanied with his study, plus the skills that he acquired while evaluating stock market data, drew Mr. Fama to the University of Chicago where he would finally develop what is known today as the “Efficient Market Hypothesis”.

INTRODUCTION

This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical evidence on the “Efficient Markets Hypothesis”. After a discussion of the theory and its relevant forms, empirical work concerned with the adjustment of security prices to the three relevant information subsets is considered. First, weak form tests, in which the information set is just historical prices, are discussed. Then the semi-strong form tests, in which the concern is whether prices efficiently adjust to other information that is obviously publicly available, (e.g., announcements of annual earnings, stock splits, etc) are considered. Finally, strong form tests concerned with whether given investors or groups have monopolistic access to any information relevant for price formation is reviewed.

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Next, this review will discuss some particular problems associated with testing the Efficient Market Hypothesis; specifically the setbacks associated with developing a benchmark (or expected return) when applying the CAPM model.

Furthermore, this review will identify some specific anomalies associated with the Efficient Market Hypothesis; illustrate the evidence of abnormal returns, and describe the empirical research performed to identify the causes of occurrence.

Finally, this review will introduce the recent evolution of “Behavioral Finance”, a concept that has been initiated in attempts to enhance the understanding of investors and the Efficient Market Hypothesis.

EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS

According to the theory of “Stock Market Efficiency”, an efficient market fully and accurately reflects all of the relavent available information in the price of a security (Fama, 170). The nature of the information does not have to be limited to financial news or research alone; information about political, economic and social events, combined with how investors perceive such information will be reflected in a securities price. Furthermore, the securities market is flooded with thousands of intelligent, well-paid, and well-educated investors seeking under and over-valued securities to buy and sell(Fama, 11). The more participants and the faster the dissemination of information, the more efficient a market should be.

As security prices only respond to information available in the market, and because the information is available to everyone, no one has the ability to “out-profit” another. Security prices are therefore random, and this “random-walk” of price results in the failure of any active investment strategy aimed at beating the market consistently. A planned investment approachs cannot be successful.

ASSUMPTIONS

Perfect Information is one of the pre-conditions in a perfectly efficienty market. The term “Perfect Information” is frequently used in economics to identify the assumption that complete knowledge is available to all securities market participants(Fama, 170). The information is available at no cost, and trading on such information is free. Furthermore, it is the assumption that all market participants agree to the implications of such information and a securities price fully reflects the expected return.

In the “real-world” however, the assumption of Perfect Information is highly unlikely. There are transaction costs associated with acquiring/analyzing market information and secondly, trading securities in the market is often performed for a nominal fee (Varian, 18). Furthermore, even the most sophicsticated security investors do not receive information instantly, nor do they react to it instantly. There is a vast amount of information that travels through the avenues of financial firms daily, and the major decisions are taken by committees or small groups of people to discuss, analyze, and decide as to what to do (Varian, 18). The major financial institutions must analyze the market impact a large scale transaction will have when transferring their funds from one asset to another, all of which takes a considerable amount of time.

A “Random Walk” is a second assumption considered in the Market Efficiency Hypothesis (Fama, 165). The theory claims that a securities price will fluctuate randomly, without any influence by past price movements. Furthermore, the theory assumes that it is impossible to predict with any accuracy which direction the security will move at any given point; neither fundamental analysis nor technical analysis’ maintain any validity.

SUB-CLASSIFICATIONS

A more complex interpretation of the “Efficient Market Hypothesis” identifies three classifications of market efficiency. Each classification is aimed at reflecting the degree to which the theory can be applied to the security markets.

WEAK FORM OF MARKET EFFICIENCY � Suggests that all past prices of a security are reflected in today’s securty prices, therefore, technical analysis cannot be used to provide an investor with an advantage (Fama, 170); examining market trading data such as the history of past prices, trading volume, or short interst, and trend analysis is fruitless (Frankel & Froot, 10).

The use of stastical investigations on time series data is applied to test the weak form of market efficiency. Charting and techincal analysis both apply a series of numerical values such as price and volume to predict future trends, and while widely used by both professional and amateur traders this type of analysis implicitly rejects the efficiency of the market as understood in the efficiency market hypothesis.

With the innovation of computer software new types of technical analysis applications have been developed to allow the users to design their own indicators and to optimise them by testing their profitability (Tung, 1). Analysts or chartists believe that by analyzing the history of a securities price they can develop probabilities and anticipate future events. This type of technical analysis applies statistical data to search for meaningful signals amongst the apparent random fluctuation of stock price movements, and although technical analysis has produced mixed results, it is commonly practiced in the securities market.

Two commonly used types of technical analysis included

BAR CHARTS Bar charts are often used to identify patterns in price, volume, and the current trend of a securities price, and can be customized to illustrate price fluctuations throughout the day, month, or even year. With the use of a Bar Chart, an analyst can attempt to identify any trend in the securities price and therefore forecast its future based on past information illustrated in the graph. The items highlighted in Blue identify the day-to-day price fluctuations, which are currently on a downward trend. The Green and Red lines identify the trading activity or volume, which takes place on a day-to-day basis.

MOVING AVERAGE CHART

The moving average chart identifies the average closing value of the securities price. This information is generated by combining the sum of closing prices and dividing them by the number of days under observation. This type of analysis is often used to identify the direction of a trend and to smooth out price and volume fluctuations. The Red Circle ( Left Side) identifies a drop in the securities price below its 50 day average (Green Line), this trend continues until January, where the second Red Circle (Right Side) identifies an increase in the stocks actual price relatively larger then the 50 day average. This information combined with historical data could identify a trend in the securities price during the month of January, sometimes called the January Effect.

SEMI-STRONG FORM OF MARKET EFFICIENCY � Suggests that all public information is calculated into the securties current price. No form of “fundemental” or “techenical” analysis can be used to provide an investor with an advantage (Fama, 170).

To test the semi-strong form of market efficiency, an analysist researches any types of adjustments to a securities price after unknown news has been released. Any types of “consistent fluctuations” in a securities price after the initial change in price suggest that investors have interpreted the “New Information” inefficiently (Frankel & Froot, 10).

By applying a Fundamental analysis, an investor attempts to value a security by analyzing the companies accounting information. Fundamental Analysis is a method that uses earnings and dividends forecasts, economic analysis, quality of the firm’s management, the firm’s standing within the industry, and the prospects for the industry as a whole. The hope is to attain insight into the future performance of the firm that is not recognized by the rest of the market(Frankel & Froot, 10). Although the results from this type of analysis have varied in the past, investment firms like Meryll Lynch, Smith Barney, and Morgan Stanley Dean Whitter continuously apply fundamental analysis to develop strategic investment portfolios for their clients.

Three types of Fundamental strategies often applied include

Value Strategy The value strategy involves selecting certain securities which appear to be underpriced in relation to their fundamentals. By evaluating a firms Price � Earnings ratio, Price �Book Ratio, Dividend Yield, Price to Sales Ratio, Dividend �Earnings Ratio, and Earnings to Sales Ratio an analyst can determine whether or not a security is undervalued in comparison to its intrinsic value.

Momentum Strategy The momentum strategy involves the selection of certain securities which show a strong appreciation in price, either in absolute or relative terms. By evaluating a firm’s Mean Return, Past and Current Performance, Trend, and Continuous Momentum, an analyst may try to identify any persistence of the forces that drive the particular market as well as the security.

Growth Strategy The growth strategy involves the selection of securities that show a continuous growth in both earnings and sales. By simply evaluating the growth of a firms Earnings Per Share, and Sales in association to the current market condition an analyst can determine whether or not the firm is likely to continue its growth pattern.

STRONG FORM OF MARKET EFFICIENCY �Suggests that all information whether public or private, is accounted for in a securities price. Although private information, also known as “inside information” is held only by the directors, managers, and professional advisors of an organization, a security price is still at its intrinsic value (Fama, 170).

In evaluating the theory of a strong-form of market efficiency, studies on the US stock market have shown that people who do trade on inside information sometimes make enormous profits (Kyle, 185). Furthermore, it was also found that investors who monitor the trading activity of insiders, and thus follow their activity have sometimes enjoyed the same type of profits (Tung, 1).



Exhibit A



Exhibit B



Exhibit A and Exhibit B illustrate the effects of individuals who, by virtue of their possession retain nonpublic information and use it without restraint in security trading. As Exhibit A demonstrates, the magnitude of profits earned by corporate insiders exceeds the profits available once the information is released to the public (Exhibit B), thus rejecting the strong form of market efficiency.

TESTING THE THEORY

Testing the Efficient Market Hypothesis can be classified into three main categories. The first type of test identifies whether abnormal return are independent of newly released information. The second type of test exposes any form of abnormal returns after taking into account the transaction costs and risk associated with the trading of a security. The third type of test determines whether the market price of a security is equal to its intrinsic value.

Testing the Weak Form of Market Efficiency

The statistical analysis of independence between rates of return and past security prices is applied to test the weak form of market efficiency. Throughout history two conventional types of tests have been applied. The first type of test ,Serial Correlation Test, identifies any positive or negative serial correlation between returns over a period of time (Lyon & Tsai, 1). The second type of test ,Run Test, compares the actual values of a securities price to its expected (forecasted) value (Lyon & Tsai, 1). Consistency in serial correlation or accurate forecasting would identify an imperfection in the weak form of market efficiency and thus reject the hypothesis, however the evidence generated from these tests suggests that the weak form of market efficiency is accurate.

Testing the Semi-Strong Form of Market Efficiency

Testing the semi strong form of market efficiency requires the examination of economic, industry, and firm specific information and its affect on a securities price. Specifically, the analysis distinguishes whether or not a securities price fully reflects all publicly available information.

An important breakthrough in testing the Efficiency Market Theory came with the advent of the Event Study method. The first Event Study was applied to stock splits, however similar tests have been structured to evaluate dividend announcements, earnings announcements, large transactions, repurchase tender offers, and other public announcements. Secondly, Time Series Analysis Tests are performed to evaluate the affect of public information on a securities price and to determine whether or not specific information will provide a superior estimate of returns for a short horizon (1-6 months) or a long horizon (1 � 5 years).

The continuous examination of Event Studies and Time Series Analysis had supported the Efficiency Hypothesis (Stanton & Gabriel, 1). However, contradicting evidence (market anomalies) has been discovered leading to mixed results in the Semi-Strong theory.

Testing the Strong-Form of Market Efficiency

Testing the strong form of market efficiency incorporates the investigation of insider trading and its contribution to abnormal returns. The strong form suggests that all information, whether public or private, is accounted for in a securities price, thus investors trading on “non-public” information will not earn abnormal profits.

Numerous tests have been performed to identify insider trading and the release of new information (Allen, 18). As mentioned before, evidence suggests that insiders do earn superior returns on securities when trading on the basis of inside information, thus rejecting the strong form of market efficiency.

PROBLEMS TESTING EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS

In an efficient market, no information or analysis can be expected to result in the out-performance of an appropriate benchmark, or “expected return”. Appropriate benchmarks refer to comparable securities of similar characteristics. The difficulty lies with the lack of ability to identify an accurate benchmark to measure actual and expected returns.

CAPM Model

Earlier investigations of the Efficient Market Hypothesis utilize the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to generate an “expected return”. The Capital Asset Pricing Model is an economic model for valuing stocks by relating risk and expected return (Reinganum, 181). The assumption is based on the belief that investors demand additional expected return on assets that have a higher measure of risk.

Although the results proved to be accurate there is particular criticism to applying the CAPM model because it too is a hypothesis. Arguments against the use of the CAPM model suggest that the expected returns are unobservable therefore the evidence is inconclusive (Reinganum, 181). Secondly, estimates of the firm specific risk is imprecise, which creates a measurement error problem when applied to calculate an expected return. The two aforementioned arguments represent the Joint Hypothesis Problem, which states that “tests of the Efficient Market Hypothesis are joint tests of market efficiency and the Capital Asset Pricing Model”. Thus if the CAPM model is incorrect so is its evaluation of the Efficient Market.

Data Mining

The rapid evolution of computer technology has provided investors with the capabilities to access and analyze vast amounts of financial data (Investor Home, 00). But the financial data provided to the market is not standardized, therefore there are numerous approaches to both producing and evaluating this information. The difficulty with data mining is the quality of sources of the data. The recording of revenues, net income, shares outstanding, earnings per share, cash flows, total returns, and many other important equity variables are highly source dependent (Loughran, 1). All multifactor equity models work on the assumption that the data upon which the model was constructed is comparable to other inputs, but due to the multiple accounting practices this may not be so. Therefore, the return predictions generated from a data mine source may be inaccurate and thus unobservable.

Assessment of Risk

An accurate assessment of risk needs to be established to properly identify the expected returns of a security’s value. An estimation of risk refers to identifying the investor’s uncertainty about the parameters of the return on a security; these parameters can differ significantly from the properties perceived by rational investors (Reinganum, 181). Therefore, actual returns can deviate from the expected. Thus producing a perception of excess returns when in reality the returns are normal.

Changes in Risk-Free Rates

Continuously changing risk-free rates are another problem in evaluating the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Fluctuations occur daily and therefore if the risk-free rate is an important factor in identifying the “expected return”, a continuous change in risk-free rates could produce an inaccurate estimation of the “expected return” (Reinganum, 181).

ANOMALIES

Despite the strong evidence that the securities market is highly efficient, numerous studies have been conducted to identify long-term historical anomalies that appear to contradict the Efficient Market Hypothesis. An anomaly is an “exception to the rule, or a deviation from what is expected”, therefore an exception to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (Jenson, 178). Furthermore, although the abnormal returns earned by anomalies associated with the securities market are not constant, they are all associated with above-average returns over a long period of time.

The anomalies listed below have all become well documented during the last few years and sometimes indicate inefficient market efficiency, thus offering potentially profitable opportunities to investors.

January Effect The January Effect refers to a phenomenon in which securities (usually small-cap), recognize higher rates of return in the month of January. Since 16, research has shown that very small securities are the prime beneficiaries, having on average recorded excess returns of approximately 10%. Midsize securities have recorded average excess returns of %, and approximately 1% for larger securities (Stanton & Gabriel, 1).

One theory suggests that the January effect is attributed to small-firms rebounding from a year-end tax sale by investors (Stanton & Gabriel, 1). The assumption is that relatively low year-end securities are usually sold for investors to realize a tax-loss. Once the tax calendar has ended the investors then reinvest their money in the market, thus causing the security prices to increase. A second theory suggests that individuals are simply compensated for the extra risk associated to investing in the small firms (Investopedia.com, 00).

Small Firm Effect First introduced by Rolf W. Banz in 181, the “Small Firm Effect” asserts that small capitalization (small-cap) securities appear to provide greater than average returns without a corresponding increase in risk (Market Volume Analysis, 00). Research indicated that risk-adjusted returns for smaller firms exceed the returns of larger firms by approximately 1% per year on average from 16 to 180 (Statman, 180). The highest returns were recognized in times of strong economic growth and during strong recovery following a recession. On the other hand, when economic times were poor, smaller firms generally under-performed their larger counterparts (Statman, 180).

Although there is no simple explanation for the Small Firm Effect, researchers suggest it could be caused by one or all of the following (1) Information uncertainty � which asserts that researchers are less likely to thoroughly investigate small-cap securities and the lack of information amounts to relatively higher risk, thus providing a potential opportunity to exploit market miss pricing (Sloan, 16). () Higher Transaction Costs and Illiquidity � which asserts that small-cap securities can be more expensive to trade or subject to wider bid-ask spreads due to the lack of liquidity, thus excess returns are possibly due to the compensation required by investors (Brau & Heaton, 00).

Market Over/Under Reaction Research indicates that security prices overreact to “firm specific” information, and under-react to “common factor” market information (Abar & Banell, 1). This over/under reaction is subsequently followed by a reversal in the securities price; the more extreme the initial price movement, the more extreme the following adjustment.

Earlier studies suggest that security investors are overly optimistic or pessimistic about the effects of new information and therefore overestimate the correlation on returns (DeBont & Thaler, 185). However, a recent study has suggested that when these returns are adjusted for differences in characteristics between winner and loser stocks, such as size, book to market, and trading volume there is no irregularity (Ball & Shanken, 15).

Post Earnings Announcement Drift Security price changes tend to persist after initial earnings announcements. Securities with positive announcements tend to drift upward, and those with negative surprises tend to drift downward (Bamber, 17).

The theory suggests that individual investors who are less sophisticated than institutional investors cause Post Earning Drift, and that the trading by individual investors causes market inefficiency. Investors naively assume earnings follow a seasonal random walk and fail to understand the implications of current earnings for future earnings (Bernard & Thomas, 18). On the other-hand, a second theory suggests that investors are not less sophisticated, but they underestimate the degree of correlation of current earnings for future earnings (Ball & Bartov, 16).

Behavioral Finance

The Efficient Market Hypothesis is based on the belief that investors act rationally and consider all available information in the decision making process. However modern research has exposed a considerable amount of evidence identifying repeated patterns of irrationality, inconsistency, and incompetence in the ways investors make decisions when faced with uncertainty. Such evidence is often referred to as market anomalies.

Since the 180’s there has been a movement to incorporate behavioral science into finance. Behavioral finance is the study of how investors interpret and act on information to make informed investment decisions (Shleifer, 1). By including behavioral science into the study of finance, researchers are able to improve the research on the Efficient Market Hypothesis by incorporating psychology-based theories to explain market anomalies (Varian, 18).

The recent evolution of Behavioral finance stems from attempts by researchers to better understand and explain how emotions and cognitive errors influence investors in the decision making process. Researchers believe that the study of psychology and other social sciences can identify current unexplained influences that cause security market anomalies.

The Efficiency Market Hypothesis assumes that investors act rationally and unbiased to available information. Behavioral research, however, has suggested that investors are commonly biased in several regards. For example, investors tend to be overconfident in their predictions in the future of the securities market. Between 17 and 10, security analysts have been substantially inaccurate in the forecasts (errors between 5% and 65%) of actual returns (Barber & Odean, 001).

Secondly, “Frame Dependence” asserts that investor decisions are often affected by a reference point of the given security (Olsen, 00). That is, at which point the investor identifies and evaluates the security. By just focusing on the recent performance of a security, investors often observe order where in reality it does not exist. Thus interpreting an accidental success to be the result of skill.

Furthermore, the study of behavioral finance illustrates the belief that investors often trade on information they believe is superior and relevant when in fact the information is already reflected in the securities price (Thaler & Berartzi, 001). This results in high trading volumes in the financial markets, a phenomenon that has often puzzled many researchers.

Although the security markets are not entirely efficient, the increasing popularity of behavioral finance has produced numerous explanations for the occurrence of market anomalies. The wide range of information has demonstrated the growing success of behavioral approaches to understanding the confusion of financial markets, and as research continues it is expected that further explanations will be exposed.

CONCLUSIONS

The introduction of the Efficient Market Hypothesis has certainly become a milestone for the financial research. The hypothesis has provided a powerful framework to analyze and understand security prices. Research has indicated that both the Weak and Semi-Strong Forms of Market Efficient are accurate, but conflicting evidence has suggested that the Strong Form of Market efficiency does not exist.

On another note, despite the strong evidence supporting the Efficient Market Hypothesis, some anomalies do exist. This has lead researchers into two different directions. Some researchers suggest that there could be considerable setbacks associated with the development of benchmarks (or expected returns), and others attempt to develop a better understanding of investors and the security markets by applying Behavioral Science.

Nonetheless, the introduction of the Efficient Market Hypothesis has become a world-renowned philosophy that has shaped the way many investors and researchers view the markets today. And with the introduction of Behavioral Science, researchers can expect to grasp a better understanding of investors, the security markets, and the influences affecting them.

References

Abarbanell, J. 1 � “Test of analysts’ overreaction / under-reaction to earnings as an explanation for stock price behavior”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 47

Ball,R. & Shanken, J. 15 - “Problems in Measuring Portfolio Performance”, Journal of Financial Economics Vol. 7

Ball, R. and Bartov, E. 16 � “How Naïve is the Stock Market’s Use of Earnings Information”, Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol. 1

Barber, B. and Odean, T. 001 � “Boys will be boys Gender, overconfidence, and common stock investment”, Journal Of Economics, Vol. 116

Benartzi, S. and Thaler, R. 001 � “Naïve diversification strategies in defined contribution savings plans”, American Economic Review, Vol. 1

Bernard, V. and Thomas, J. 18 � “Post-Earnings Drift Delayed Price Response or Risk Premium?”, Journal Of Accounting Research, Vol. 7

Brav, A. and Heaton, J. 00 � “Competing theories of financial anomalies”, Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 15

DeBondt, W. and Thaler, R. 185 � “Does the Stock Market Overreact?”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 40

Fama, E. 170 � “Efficient Capital Markets A Review of Theory and Empirical Work”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 5

Fama, E. 11 � “Efficient Capital Markets II”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 46

Fama, E. 15 � “Random Walks in Stock Prices”, Financial Analysts Journal, (Reprint) January/October

Frankel, J. and Froot, K. 10 � “Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market”, American Review, Vol. 80

Investor Home 00 � “The Efficient Market Hypothesis and The Random Walk Theory”

Investor Home 00 � “Data Mining”

Jensen, M. 178 � “Some Anomalous Evidence Regarding Market Efficiency”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 6

Kyle, A. 185 � “Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading”, Econometrica, Vol. 5

Loughran, T. 1 - “Uniformly Least Powerful Tests of Market Efficiency”, Journal Of Financial Economics, Vol. 5

Lyon, J. and Tsai, B. 1 � “Improved Methods For Tests of Long-run Abnormal Stock Returns”, Journal Of Finance, Vol. 54

Morris, S. 18 � “Testing Market Efficiency”, Financial Institutions Center (Finance Applications of Game Theory), Vol. B

Olsen, R. 00 � “Professional Investors As Naturalistic Decisions Makers Evidence And Market Implications”, Journal of Behavioral Finance, Vol.

Reinganum, M. 181 � “Misspecification of Capital Asset Pricing Empirical Anomalies Based On Earnings Yields and Market Values”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol.

Shleifer, A. 1 � “Inefficient Markets An Introduction to Behavioral Finance”, Oxford University Press, Vol. 17

Sloan, R. 16 � “Do Stock Prices Fully Reflect Information In Accruals and Cash Flows about Future Earnings?”, The Accounting Review, Vol. 71

Stanton, T. and Gabriel, P. 1 � “Testing Market Efficiency With Information on Individual Investor Performance”, International Review of Economics and Finance, Vol.

Stattman, D. 180 � “Book Value and Stock Returns”, The Chicago MBA, Vol. 4

Stattman, M. 1 � “Behavioral Finance Past Battles and Future Engagements”, Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 55

Tuft’s E-New’z 00 “Tufts President Lawrence S. Baco Awarded Eugene Fama an Honorary Degree”, May 0

Tung, A. 1 � “The Use of Information System Technology to Develop Tests on Insider Trading and Asymmetric Information”, Journal Of Management Science, Vol. 45

Varian, H. 18 � “Differences of Opinion in Financial Markets”, Financial Risk, Theory, Evidence and Implications, Kluwer Academic Publications, 18



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Introduction Picture this, you’re driving and the person in front of you is completely oblivious to what’s going on, and your thinking, what is this person doing. You pull up next to them and look, and see that they are engaged in a full conversation on their cell phone. Then all of a sudden you look in your review mirror and this person behind you is about to rear end you. What do you know, the person is on the cell phone too. Or maybe this, you’re driving by yourself and you’re listening to your music and your cell phone rings. You go to reach for your phone, in your pocket or purse, and then you look up and “Oh my God, that was a close call.” Your heart is racing and you’re really scared cause you almost ran off the side of the freeway. Believe it or not, this happens everyday, and is only growing.

Thesis The use of cell phones while driving should be banned due to their dangerous potential.

Blame

Claim 1 With the growth of cell phones they are becoming more popular then ever.

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Warrant 1 In the year 000, cell phones hit their prime. Everyone around either wants a cell phone or is purchasing them. There are the simpler cell phones to the high tech phones. However, instead of a cell phone being a luxury, it has now become a necessity.

Ground 1 “Cell phone use is growing at a rate of 40% a year, and is likely to top 80 million users by next year.” (Concern voiced over phoning while driving, Drew Sullivan.)

Ground “There are currently 88 million cell phone users in this country alone. There are 40,000 new subscribers everyday. The rate of subscribership exceeds the birth rate. A prevention magazine survey in 15 reported that 85% of cell phone owners use their phones while driving at least some of the time.” (An Investigation of Wireless Communications in Vehicles, Fran Bents.)

Ground “Today, cellular telephones are owned by more than 50 million Americans and new technological breakthroughs have seen a migration from analog to digital architectures along with the recent introduction of “ Personal Communication Services (PCS)” as a competitor to the cellular market.” (An Investigation of the Safety Implications of Wireless Communications in Vehicles.)

Claim Cell phones do cause a distraction.

Warrant Now that more and more Americans have cell phones, the distraction of using cell phones while driving is rising. There are more phones marketed, and more people buying them and becoming distracted.

Ground 1 “A survey by Prevention Magazine indicated that 18% of respondents believed that their use of cellular telephones is distracting while they were driving, while 85% of the respondents use their cellular telephone while driving at least occasionally. It also indicated that 70% of the drivers found cellular telephone use to be the same or more distracting than tuning a radio.” (An Investigation of the Safety Implications of Wireless Communications in Vehicles.)

Ground “There are major causes; number one is visual. Looking away from the roadway would be an example of this. Number two, is mechanical, such as dialing a number or looking for your phone. This can also be associated with a visual distraction. The third is cognitive; an example of this is being “lost in though.” We have all had the experience of traveling from point A to point B and then realizing that we aren’t sure how we got there.” (An Investigation of Wireless Communications in Vehicles, Fran Bents.)



Ground “The inattention and distraction created by the use of a cellular telephone while driving is similar to that associated with other distractions in increasing crash risk.” (An Investigation of the Safety Implications of Wireless Communications in Vehicles.)

Claim With the growth of technology, cell phones have been made with more distracting features.

Warrant The world in the eyes of mass communication has change though out the years. The technology of many things has gotten more elite and interesting for the world today. For instance, cell phones now have features that make it able to check emails and stocks, send faxes, and surf the web.

Ground 1 “Already growing at a rate of 40% per year, the use of cellular communications is likely to increase as wireless Internet access, fax machines, and televisions are introduced. According to National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 85% of all cellular customers are using the devices while driving.” (Cell Phone Use While Driving Increases Crash Risk, Gay Frankenfield.)

Ground “As the use of in-vehicle wireless communications technology increases there will be an associated increase in related crashes if little changes.” (An Investigation of the Safety Implications of Wireless Communications in Vehicles.)

Ground “ This trend is such that cellular communications can now be the focal point of a truly “mobile office,” including e-mail, fax and Internet services in addition to telephone, voice mail, and paging capabilities from any location.” (An Investigation of the Safety Implications of Wireless Communications in Vehicles.)

Harm

Claim 4 Cell phone use while driving can lead to more accidents and the rate of crashes has gone up.

Warrant 4 The use of cell phones while your driving is dangerous. Because Americans are in denial of the distraction, the rate of nearby crashes and crashes has gotten higher.

Ground 1 “According to a survey by Framers Insurance Group, 87% of adults believe that using a cell phone while driving impairs a person’s ability to drive.” (New survey shows Drivers have had ‘Close Calls’ with cell phone Users, Farmers Ins.)

Ground “While only % of drivers said they had been in an accident in which one of the drivers was using a cell phone, more than 40% reported to have had close calls or near misses with a driver who was on the phone.” (New survey shows Drivers have had ‘Close Calls’ with cell phone Users, Farmers Ins.)

Ground “According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administrations, 78 people died nationally in 17 in accidents in which cell phones or hand-held radios were a contributing factor.” (Concern voiced over phoning while driving, Drew Sullivan.)

Ground 4 “A 17 study, reported in the New England Journal of Medicine indicates that drivers are four times more likely to have automobile accidents while using cellular phones. The study also revealed that the risk was the same when drivers utilized

“handsfree” phones. They also stated that using a cell phone with driving is equal to drinking and driving. The study cited the risk of collision quadruples when talking on a cell phone.” (Cell Phone Use While Driving Increases Crash Risk, Gay Frankenfield.)

Claim 5 Even if you think your more responsible then others, crashes while talking on the cell phone, can happen to anyone.

Warrant 5 No matter your age, or your life status, car crashes can happen to anyone. We are invincible, or so that’s what we think. A fatal crash or a fender bender can happen to us all and just the little distraction can do, like talking on a cell phone.

Ground 1 “In Roberts, Smith Barney, a stockbroker, was driving and talking on his cell phone one Saturday evening while on his way to a non-business related dinner. En route to the restaurant, his car hit and killed a 4-year-old motorcyclist, a father of two.” (A Risky Call, Heather Alston.)

Ground “Older drivers will often find it more challenging to operate cellular telephones that tend toward small displays and controls designed to specifications drawn from a younger population.” (Age related decrements in automobile instrument panel task performance, Hayes.)

Ground “I watched my daughter die, says Patrica Pena, her daughter was killed in her car seat when the car in which she was riding was truck by a motorist using a cell phone.” (Cell Phone Use While Driving Increases Crash Risk, Gay Frankenfield.)

Transition As you can see, cell phones are very dangerous to everyone. It only takes one look down, and then your life can be a lot harder then before. If you can think of everyone else and yourself, maybe you will think again before you reach down for that cellular phone.

Solution

Claim 6 There are many ways to help and prevent the accidents that are happening with the use of cellular phones while driving.

Warrant 6 We can help with the rate of accidents, by simply following the rules. They are not laws yet, however if we can make them laws now, we can save many Americans today. With just a little help and understanding from others, we can make cell phones while driving safer.

Ground 1 “In a new report on wireless communications, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration encouraged state and local officials to begin tracking cell phone use in related traffic warnings, citations, and crash investigations.” (Cell Phone Use While Driving Increases Crash Risk, Gay Frankenfield.)

Ground “ Motorists may want to pull over or use hands-free technology, and should avoid emotional or stressful conversations.” (Cell Phone Use While Driving Increases Crash Risk, Gay Frankenfield.)

Ground “Parkes in 1 introduced the concept of an ‘intelligent answerphone’ as a system that would divert, record, and interrupt messages appropriately based on sensed driving conditions.” (An Investigation of the Safety Implications of Wireless Communications in Vehicles.)

Claim 7 There should be a ban on using cell phones while driving.

Warrant 7 Without a cell phone to distract you, you can concentrate more while driving.

Ground 1 “ If people can’t talk on their phones they can focus on the traffic and thus the cell phone related accidents would decrease.” (Further on the road tests of driver interference, Green.)

Ground “ In November, Japan became one of 14 countries banning handheld phone use while driving. Accidents caused by the use of mobile phones dropped by 75% the next month.” (An Investigation of Wireless Communications in Vehicles, Fran Bents.)

Conclusion The available evidence is accurate to support the conclusion that the use of cell phones while driving is dangerous and does cause accidents. It appears reasonably plausible, particularly in light of the trends in the data, the growing complexity of the technology, and the inherent distraction potential of using such devices from a moving vehicle. Thus, many may feel a loss in freedom, however a little restriction can help many and go a long way. So just remember, when you pick up that cellular phone in a car, make sure you are aware of how dangerous it can be.



Sources

Alston, Heather. A risky call, Dec. 1.

Bents, Fran. (17) An investigation of wireless communications in vehicles.

Frankenfield, Gay. Cell phone use while driving increases crash risk.

Green, Hoekstra. (1). Further on-the-road tests of driver interfaces.

Hayes, Kurokawa. (18). Age-related decrements in automobile instrument panel task performance.

Sullivan, Drew. Concern voiced over phoning while driving.

Farmers Insurance Study. New survey shows drivers have had ‘close calls’ with cell phone users.

An investigation of the safety implications of wireless communications in vehicles, Nov.17.



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“The Risk of Experience”

We know that in our business, the product is sold and consumed at the same time, (unlike retail business, the customer pays for the food and pays for it at the same time)

However, regardless of a hotel’s class or category, it is evidently common that the room rates, yields and Gross Operating Profits constantly fluctuate. This fluctuation if not controlled forces the management to reconsider service levels and cut corners to achieve targeted profits. This so called “repositioning” results into inconsistency of service standards, food production and leads to increase in service errors, widening the discrepancy in the promised and actual product quality.

Repositioning of service levels change the customer’s value perception and thus gives the market an opportunity to seek discounts.

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This process of declining value can be found in almost all class of hotels, regardless of their affiliation. When the hotels either chain affiliated or independent compete in the market place, they tend to enter in a cut throat price war and discounting becomes part of their day-to-day sales strategy. At the same time the hotels do not realize that their property is moving away from the customers set of choices, forcing the management to re-price premium products with lower rates.

At that time, the management often starts studying competition and try to copy the packages, promotions and offers. All this happens without realizing the need of a well thought clear value proposition. In this cut and paste process, stand alone independent hotels suffer the most. And gradually it becomes difficult to maintain year round profitable business. Whereas, the full service hotels speedily reduce their room rate to capture the lower market tiers.

We as professional managers know, but do not admit, that when our customers perceive higher “Risk of Experience” they push our room rates further down. And demand rates which we agree to maintain market share.

In my opinion, customer’s “Risk of Experience” is everything. This perception drives the market share upward or downward and can only be minimized if not eliminated via a well-chosen Value Proposition.

Unfortunately not many hotels have done so; however foodservice industry has such examples like McDonalds, KFC and Outback Steak House where the Value proposition is so strongly knitted around the entire business that customers themselves feel the tangibility of intangible value of the product. Why these foodservice businesses do not under price their products? Isn’t McDonalds aware that a new KFC outlet has just opened next door? Instead, McDonalds comes up with “McChicken Burger” and “McNuggets” attracting KFC’s clientele. McDonalds knows that its product line is perceived as consistent in quality and therefore uses innovation to re-enforce its value proposition.

Hopefully, one day the Hotels too would start realizing the need of a unique value proposition, which can minimize its guest’s perception of risk.

The point is who would dare to break through the mediocrity and redirect the operation to only serve the needs of a well chosen market.

What can be done?

A direction to create true Value for your customer and win

As the competition grows so as the opportunity! Don’t be delusional! This may not be true if a hotel cuts corners and increases customer’s “Risk of Experience” every time the market shrinks.

It is proven that the competition will not provide any opportunity to mediocre; no matter what kind of opportunity rises it will be captured by the market leader, unless the core decision makers strictly follow the principle of business management driven from best suited Value Proposition.

Not every value proposition suits every hotel business; neither every market opportunity fits into every hotel’s profile.

Value Proposition Management is the tool which enables a hotel business to thrive at the justifiable costs, with more returns than expected.

No two hotels or resorts are ever alike, so as the Business or Marketing or even the Cost and Expense plans. The one, which works for your competitor, could lead to disaster if your hotel attempts to follow without looking into your intangible assets and physical strengths.

A Company with a well defined value proposition and its adoption as the “core vision” is more likely to gain a substantial lead within its own chosen market, therefore would always be the leader. In todays competitive market a master of non and jack-of-all-trades suffers.

You have seen McDonalds, proudly announcing “billions of burgers sold”, do they make the best burger in the world? No! But they lead the market wherever they are, and they do it through specializing in their own value proposition, excelling in it, and expanding and maintaining their product line. Needless to say that McDonalds become unconditional choice for a budget minded customer looking for a fast bite.

The key is to create and implement business rules driven from customer’s set of buying rules. These rules must reflect a single value proposition in every aspect of corporate culture, hotel operation and marketing scenarios. Should involve all levels of organizational hierarchy and cover from restaurant menu design to the quality of bathrobe.

Remember! The profit is the key of expansion, not the customer. Those days are over when the Hotels were dominating work styles of its customers. Now, the real customers are much simpler, well traveled, work longer hours or at their own pace. This new market does not have time to accept service flaws, expect fast answers and is very demanding in all aspects of their needs.

This new market expects product features in conjunction with its work habits without perception of risk and frustrating delays. The best characteristic of today’s new market is it does not go out of a pre-set frame of buying rules.

Rule #1 Match your set of business rules with the customer’s buying rules.

I am not saying that the Hotel has to discount room rates to meet with customer’s buying rules; this would frustrate the owners and would send a wrong signal to the market. Today’s new customer is very precise when it comes to Value assessment, although the price plays a major role, but there is more in it! Systems like Corporate Classics or Preferred Loyalty programs commonly being used in Hotel Chains from Holiday Inn, Shangri-La, and Hyatt do not provide the required returns on investment; minimizing Risk of Experience is the foremost rule proven to capture market share and is guaranteed to produce profits for your operation.

My fellow hoteliers my think generic marketing campaigns bring results, these used to work when not much was available to compete with, and so as the customers had their own all time favorite “spots”.

Now this customer’s loyalty hardly exists for the conventional player.

Unfortunately, the conventional players do not realize the paradigm shift within their markets. How many of us may overlook and will not learn from our competitor when it added a video conferencing facility which moved up the several points, pushing yours down the list. Or another hotel spent thousands of dollars more on its Chef, to expand its menu selection to include Japanese specialties and now has year- round favorable business from JTB.

Perhaps till today some of us are still keeping an eye on the conventional set of business rules, rather than on their market’s changing set of buying rules.

I suggest being careful when you make your next corporate plan. Observe realistically your customer’s set of buying rules, compare with your set of value proposition then if you find the crux of both matching, transform your corporate policies and operational system through revising your standard operating procedures, tailoring each one around the chosen value proposition.

Rule # Your plan should be easy to understand at rank and file level enabling them to measure their performance by end of each day.

Don’t overwhelm management with pages of meaningless documents that some of us think would impress the reader. Statistical information driven from Business Performance Review is much important because your teams need to know where they had been, and where they should be in a specific time frame. Once the goal is set, use of a Balance Scorecard will help in setting the strategy.

Choosing the right value Proposition requires understanding of its three founding value disciplines

Customer Intimacy

Defined as Higher operating costs, higher employee per room ratio, service offered on one-to-one basis, custom made solutions to the employees and customers, each demand being met individually.

This discipline requires an upscale product and complementing service levels and offers higher returns on investment. Giving the hotel best actual revenue share with best gross operating profit, through unbelievable number of loyal customers coming back year after year, this discipline is well adopted by companies like Ritz Carlton, and also being now tried by Boutique Hotels, but resulting into lesser success in means of ROI.

Intercontinental Hotels, Crown Plaza, Hilton and several other compatible hotel brands also claim to offer value driven from Customer intimacy, but not all are successful. The reason is simple; not being able to create a solution providing � employee satisfying work environment where delegation, training and human resource development is necessary.



Product leadership

Defined as The hotel with reflection of innovative thinking, always researching and developing products, leading the market with most advanced features among all competitors. Constantly adding in-room features, state of the art guest servicing techniques, ready to obsolete and replace own innovation with a further developed product defines this discipline.

High R&D costs, with corporate management working on innovative products while the operations management is consistently offering innovative solutions exceeding the expectation of its market. This discipline also generates high profit, with less variable expenses and more fixed costs. The guests are served by highly motivated and innovative team, each team is managed by a team-leader fully trained in satisfying the queries, knows how to handle unexpected and can offer alternate solutions in no time. This discipline enables the hotel to maintain its leadership and motivate its customers to buy products on highest possible price tag. On the other hand, customer do not stay loyal to one innovation. They know that they might get an introductory flyer within next few months introducing a newly added in-room feature, and that it may enhance their next experience.

Operational Excellence

Defined as consistency in product quality and presentation. The businesses working on this principle successfully deliver the product on a firm quality standard again and again. Thus minimizing the perception of risk in customers mind and assures value. Market for such businesses expect Fast and efficient service with no frills and thrills. Radisson’s first in the market travel agent commission program was built on the same principle and did provide assurance to the travel agent of prompt commission payment, the same process was then copied by some well known GDS reservation service providers.

This means returning customers would increase; operations will have lower costs with almost negligible wastage of resources, property will have enhanced sale volume, resulting into higher revenue and market share with possibility of capturing a leading position in the marketplace.

This value discipline requires taking control of each task in the process of customer experience � right from reservation to city ledger. Businesses incorporating Operational Excellence tend to focus on elimination of human error, and if there is an error then generous compensations are offered.

Operational Excellence needs automation throughout the property, reducing the chances of human error to minimum; The Hotels which excel in this discipline ensure that all decisions right from selection of employee up to producing menu items fall through strict quality control process.

In early 70s the idea behind budget accommodations was to capitalize on operational excellence and serve the on-road salesmen traffic.

Formation of a Value Proposition

Each one of the above disciplines represents a specific market. Therefore, the first step before choosing the discipline is to choose the customer in view of your property’s profile. Then choose the discipline which will maximize ROI.

If a hotel is in formation phase or restructuring its market position, changing the value discipline can be disastrous, the management can overcome this through reinforcing financial resources and shifting the responsibilities horizontally, retraining and improving the delegation factor across the organization.

Finally, this would enable the business to lead the market, exceed customer’s expectation, with best market share.

Similar to any other service industry, value in hotel business should be measured from “customer’s perception of risk”. Lesser the risk, more the value will be.



In a conventionally managed hotel where the most negligible service flaw keeps coming back through guest feed back and the management overlooks it every time. What will happen? This will begin the cycle of revenue losses and higher costs � may be through loss of customer or most likely through discounts which your sales manager has to offer on already discounted rates to keep the client. No mater what you offer to compensate - the guest will perceive higher risk in choosing your hotel next time. And once the perception of risk goes up, it spreads out like a wild fire and in no time changes the entire market’s perception.

Every hotel wants to create a perfect model of service, not allowing the customers to leave unhappy, paying much attention to details, stressing on training and retaining “good” employees. But forgetting that in our business the product is delivered and consumed at the time of purchase, both, the employee and the customer perceives certain percentage of risk at the time of service delivery and its consumption. A well-chosen value proposition is the only key to reduce the perception of risk both internally and externally. This will minimize the chances of discrepancy between committed and delivered product quality, and create your team’s and client’s confidence in the product value.

I have worked with Hotels where marketing and sales teams were always under-pricing their own product, at times even the promotional packages were further discounted.

A well-chosen value proposition discourages conventional sales tools and techniques like under-pricing, discounting and falsely committing to services which may not be feasible to offer due to cost constraints. Instead, choosing a Value proposition and creating products around it will give your operation a balance between cost and profitability.

It will also enable the teams to make a fast, accurate and win-win decision. Whether it is a routine or a custom made solution, if it is within the parameters of chosen value proposition; it will perfectly serve your customer’s needs.

Choosing a well-defined Value Proposition and incorporating it through out the corporate culture creates this natural flexibility which enables the business to adopt the change in market trend faster then the competitor, without compromising on profits.



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PC-Tel (PCTI) a leader in wireless access and wireless intelligence, just announced it would continue and expand it stock buyback program. In August of 00 the company came out with its first program. The Board of Directors passed a program that allowed the company to buy back up to one million shares. The program was completed by February of 00. The repurchase activities were based on management’s discretion and would be bought in fairly even amounts throughout that time period. Since the inception of the stock repurchase program we have repurchased 1,58,600 shares of our outstanding common stock for approximately $11.5 million. In August of 00 the company’s stock price was 5., which was the beginning of the program. Over the course of seven months the price jumped as high as 7. in January of 00. This jump came with a company whose earnings per share is very low (0.0), the company felt that there stock was a good buy at the time so they implemented the program to buy back company shares. The company recently announced another program to buy back shares and the company’s stock has seen a high of 14.10 through its second buy back program and that is the highest value of the stock, even through

the tech bubble years. The company has done pretty well over the years competing in a very competitive market and industry. With the rapid growth that this sector has seen in the last five years PC-Tel has spent a considerable amount of money on Research and Development, which made there earnings a little lower than expected and thus affected ratios such as their P/E and EPS.





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Human beings generally tend to act according to sensible decisions they make in advance. But when we permit ourselves to be driven by an impulse, we act contrary to what had already been planned. Consequently, we are filled with overwhelming emotions and our state of mind is noticeably affected. This seems to be the case of the main character in “A Pair of Silk Stockings”. In the story, Mrs. Sommers underwent a profound transformation in her state of mind the afternoon she went shopping.

At the beginning of her shopping bout, Mrs. Sommers was very worried and tired. She was so concerned about her children’s needs that she was eager to spend the fifteen dollars she had found on them. As she wanted to provide them with “fresh and dainty” attire, she had to be very careful about how she intended to spend her money. Since she did not want to act hastily, she was very anxious. So she drew a up a wise investment plan for a “proper and judicious use of the money”. She thought that the most sensible way to make it more profitable was by going to bargain counters. Besides, Mrs. Sommers became rather weary. She was always so busy doing the household chores and taking care of the children that she had little time to rest. The day she went shopping, she was so excited that she had even forgotten to have lunch. When she arrived at the store, she felt so weak and fatigued that she had to rest before a counter in order to gather strength to start searching for bargains.

All of a sudden, when she came across a pair of silk stockings, she became so excited that she abandoned herself to her sudden impulses. After her first purchase, she felt so invigorated that she began to spend the money on herself, something she had not done in a long time. Besides, she bought a pair of boots that made her feel both self-assured and satisfied. She also bought a pair of gloves and two high-priced magazines. At that point, she did not care about how much she spent as long as she got what she desired. It seemed that the more she bought, the more excitement she felt. After that, she treated herself to a delicious meal at an expensive restaurant and to a play at the theatre. Besides, she was quite proud of her appearance and the effect it had on the people surrounding her. At least for a while, she felt she belonged to the well-dressed crowd and she gained a sense of self-assurance, because her presence at the restaurant as well as at the theatre “created no surprise”.

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Unfortunately, when the play was over, she realized she had to face her old stark reality again. She felt unbearably sad because her dream came to and end. When she went to the bus stop to take the cable car to go back home, she yearned not to reach her destination. She wished to remain in that dreamy state that allowed her to forget, at least for an afternoon, her life full of responsibilities and restrictions. For this reason, she greatly desired the cable car to “go on and on with her forever”.

All in all, Mrs. Sommers was driven by and impulse which brought about an unexpected change in her state of mind the afternoon she went shopping. It is not unusual to find somebody who fails to control their emotions. As we are human beings with irresistible impulses, what we should do is to permit ourselves to fulfill our desires, at least every once in a while.



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Buddy

Buddy comes from a family, which doesn’t really treat buddy with respect. His mother and his father don’t help Buddy especially not his father. One day Buddy was offered to go on a school trip but he didn’t dare tell his mum or dad because he knew they couldn’t afford it. So as Buddy really wanted to go on the trip he stool £5.00 out of his mother’s purse. Once Buddy stool £5.00 he said to himself that he better stop stealing other wise he’ll turn out like his father. At school Buddy was a very bright kid and he was moved to the top class which was called the E class. E meant E = express. Buddy thought that he should tell his mum about the money but he knew that he would get yelled at. Buddy was quiet upset because his mother and father spent more money on cigarettes and not on him. Buddy mum and dad always argued and it was normal about Buddy’s dad wasting a lot of money at the pub and he mixing with the wrong crowd.

Buddy was in his room and heard the door g and it was his mum he could tell that she was in a bad mood how she slammed shut the door. Buddy knew that his mum found out that buddy had taken the money from her purse. At first buddy denied it and said that it could have been some one from work in her office but then buddy owned up and said it was him. Buddy felt sad and wanted to be forgiven but a strange thing happened was that his mum was crying because buddy took the money. Buddy felt really bad because buddy had never seen his mum cry before. Buddy was pleading for forgiveness but his mum shouted out

“ Father like Son.”

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After that buddy went to sleep trying to thing of what he could do to make his mum forgive him but he thought of nothing. In the morning went down stairs and it was really quiet and buddy went into the kitchen and saw his dad asleep sprawled over the table. Buddy woke him up to ask where his mum was but buddy’s dad just shagged his shoulder. Buddy’s dad took him for a walk and decided that its time for the truth. For the past couple of years I have been in prison because I broke into someone’s house. Buddy was shocked and carry on walking. Once Buddy got home he realised that his mum probably left because of he could hear them arguing the night before. Buddy was hoping that when he got home from school that his mum would be home but when buddy got home she wasn’t there. Buddy was waiting for his mum to come home but after months of waiting buddy gave up and knew that she wouldn’t come home. During this time it was just buddy and his dad and they didn’t talk to each other because they had nothing to talk about and wasn’t very fond of each other. Buddy thought that it was his fault that his mum left because he stool the money from his mum purse.

While buddy mum wasn’t there he didn’t have any more to catch the bus the bus to school so he hate to walk because his dad didn’t have a job and buddy thought that he wouldn’t ever have a job. And because they didn’t have enough money buddy didn’t have the right uniform because he’s trousers broke so he hate to were blue jeans.

As buddy’s mum went his dad hate to get rid of his aryl and when he got home from selling is aryl he was moaning about to buddy trying to make out it was all his fault. Buddy was still trying to get over his mum leaving so suddenly. He went to school like normal but it was getting worse. Mr Normington was making fun of he. Because of the clothes he wore and how he smells and that put buddy real down.

The next day Mr Normington gave out a letter about parents evening and normally it was his mother that goes but buddy didn’t know if he should show hiss father or not. H thought that he could make up an excuse saying that his mother and father have to work that night and can’t fit any of the times. But buddy went to school the next day and Mr Normington asked if his mother or father was going. Mr Normington was nearly shouting at buddy saying he got a time for every parent and he want to know by tomorrow.

Buddy went home and decided to show his dad the letter but when buddy showed him the letter he had know idea what it was. So buddy explains and buddies dad said things like what’s it for and why should I go.

So then Buddy went into school and told Mr Normington that he could go.

When the parent evening came buddies father go dressed up all in leather. When they were walking to the school buddy kept a few steps ahead so it didn’t look like they were together. Buddy was worried about his dad. He thought what if he makes a total fool of himself.

Buddy thought that school was really far away because they were walking really slowly and buddy could tell that his dad was worried.

Once the parents evening was over buddy was happy that it was over even though it went all right.



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INT / INC - 1

Users of Financial Statements

What you look for in the statements depends on your objectives

�Equity investment profitability, risk, cash generating ability

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�Merger and acquisition profitability, risk, price to pay, impact on financial

statements.

�Credit extension/Customer health short-term vs. long-term, ability to pay interest &

-principal, liquidity.

�Supplier health (supplier of key raw material, suppliers quality, JIT) cash

generating ability, profitability.

�Employer health (employees, unions) long-term viability & ability to meet pension

liabilities, profitability, risk.

�Internal operation analysis analysis of business segments performance, cost,

profit, budgeting, and business strategy.

�Antitrust regulations monopoly power (profitability, market share), cost of capital,

justifying merger through failing company doctrine disregarding monopoly

consideration.

�Competitors analysis profitability, profit margins, market share (aids in pricing,

product mix).

�Audit tests going concern judgements by auditors.

�Legal judgement fraudulent conveyance.

Concentrate on investors and creditors

(Covers most users).

INT / INC -

Financial statements (the reports produced by the financial accounting system), in

theory, aim at providing information useful for these two groups, while limiting the

information available for competitors.

What information is considered useful to investors and creditors?

1 Information that helps in predicting future cash flows. Investors are primarily

interested in valuing firms.

Information relating to a firm’s risk characteristics - liquidity, solvency

Information that may serve as an observable on which contracts are written.

Two simple examples

Example 1

Corporate lending contracts typically contain certain restrictions on the

borrowing party in order to reduce its risk of default. These restrictions

are typically based on accounting variables such as debt-equity, ratios

and working capital.

Example

Managers compensation is tied to firm performance that is often

measured by reported earnings.

Does this however hold true in practice?

INT / INC -

The Adversarial Nature of Financial Reporting

Corporations and Management have substantial incentives to exploit the fact that

accounting principles are neither fixed nor precise as to be open to only one

interpretation. (e.g., SEC requires companies to disclose information if it is material

but does not define materiality with great precision.) The simple fact that preparers

of financial statements spend time contemplating issues such as the accounting

methods to be used (e.g., LIFO or FIFO), what is to be disclosed, the timing of the

disclosure, etc., indicates that they believe that their choice makes a difference.

The incentives to exploit the nature of financial reporting are twofold

1. As part of the fiduciary duty to shareholders

A corporation exists for the benefit of its shareholders, not for the purpose of

educating the public about its financial condition. Bearing in mind this fiduciary

responsibility, corporate managers may ask themselves whether they are acting

responsibly if they do not take advantage of legal opportunities to maximize

shareholder’s wealth.

. For self-serving reasons as management compensation and perhaps their

job itself is tied to financial results

These reasons lead to the following conclusion on the part of management

THE BEST KIND OF FINANCIAL STATEMENT IS THE ONE THAT

RESULTS IN THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE

PRICE FOR ITS STOCK

AND/OR

PERSONAL COMPENSATION

FASB and SEC prohibit companies from going too far in this direction, but once

managers accept the premise that financial statements are instruments for

maximizing shareholders’ wealth, they will realize the benefits by preparing the

statements so as to

1. lower cost of capital (risk)

. create higher earnings expectations

. downplay real and contingent liabilities

INT / INC - 5

Accounting Definitions of Income - Review

A major problem in measuring firm performance for a specific accounting

period arises in situations where a transaction is started in one period but will

be completed in a future period.

Two approaches to determine the timing of earnings recognition exist

Cash basis of accounting

Accrual basis of accounting

The difference between these two methods is in the time when they

consider a transaction as completed, namely, when they recognize earnings.

(i.e., the question is when revenues and/or expenses are reported (i.e.,

recognized) in the income statement.). Over the life of the firm, income and

cash flows converge. They differ only as to timing of recognition.

Accounting concept of income

Purpose . Informational . Future Cash Flows

Question If purpose of accounting is to forecast future cash flows why not

just provide cash flows or cash basis income.

Answer Accrual accounting “better” forecaster of future cash flows

�e.g. spend $10 to purchase asset which is sold for $1 on account

What is better forecast of profitability ($10) or $?



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opinion, however, it was the association of marijuana with blacks and Mexicans that ultimately stigmatised the drug as a violent and addictive drug for the following thirty years. As Himmelstein concludes, Because Mexican laborers and other lower class groups were identified as typical marihuana users, the drug was believed to cause the kind of anti-social behaviour associated with these groups, especially violent crime.5 It is in this period that we see the emergence of films such as Reefer Madness, which first use the dreaded term, killer-weed.

Reefer Madness (18) is an important film because it shows the blatant misrepresentation of the effects of marijuana. The story opens with an official speaking to a hall filled with concerned parents and teachers. The speaker warns of the dramatic rise, to almost epic proportions, of the deadly addictive weed, marijuana. The speaker claims that this new plague cannot be underestimated, and the effects of the killer-weed may even be more deadly than that of heroine and cocaine. This deadly narcotic is The Real Public Enemy Number One! The film portrays evil pushers who pray on unsuspecting teenagers by addicting them to marijuana. The effects are shown to be crazed dancing, violent sexual tendencies, hazardous driving, and ultimately homicidal tendencies. In the final scene, the protagonist is sentenced to death after murdering two others.

It is interesting to note that there seems to be no evidence of an increased use of marijuana by white middle-class teenagers until the mid-160s. The film warns that this happened to a community just like yours, when it certainly did not. It is my opinion that the film was made primarily to solidify the myth that marijuana was an addictive and violent drug, not to address real social problems.

Filmmakers until the late 150s were strictly bound to certain restrictions laid out in the Motion Picture Production Code. If a film did not receive approval by this group of censors, it would generally not be distributed as a general release. Seeing as any reference to narcotics, positive, or negative, was strictly forbidden, films such as Reefer Madness (18) were not readily available to the general public. It was not until 148, when H.J. Ainslinger himself was involved in an anti-narcotics film, To the Ends of the Earth, that the PCA gave its Certificate of Approval. In later years, the PCA amended its code to allow for films dealing with the use and sale of narcotics as long as these films portrayed this use in a negative light.

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The film High School Confidential (158) is an interesting example of the changing signification of the dangers of marijuana consumption. The increased use of marijuana by beatniks and other fringe countertcultural groups forced filmmakers to portray the effects of the drug slightly more realistically. In this film, the protagonist, and undercover narcotics officer infiltrates an upper-class secondary school in order to break an evil drug ring. While marijuana is still portrayed as being highly addictive, it is shown more as a stepping stone to the harder drug, heroin. The protagonist says to one poor weed addict, Do I have to spell it out for you? If you flake with the weed, youll end up using the hard stuff. Perhaps it is in this period that distinctions between hard and soft drugs start to be made, and I feel that this is directly related to the fact that more and more university students began experimenting with marijuana.

Films such as I Love You Alice B. Toklas! (168) and Easy Rider (16) can be used to demonstrate the changing attitude towards drug culture during the 160s and 170s. Marijuana was commuted, as were the laws surrounding its possession, from killer weed to drop-out weed. As it became popular with middle-class white university students, its stigma was diminished greatly; so much so that it was decriminalised in eleven U.S. states. It is during this period that marijuana is portrayed openly in films as a peaceful and even enlightening natural substance.

I Love You, Alice B. Toklas is a charming comedy focusing on the mid-life crisis of the main character played by Peter Sellers. He meets a sweet flower child and is introduced to the hippie world of counterculture and pot. As Frank Thompson, in his article, Movies on Drugs, writes, marijuana is an entirely positive force in Toklas; everyone who uses it (even unwittingly Sellers aging parents) emerges more thoughtful, aware, spontaneous - freer. I was hard-pressed to find films in any of the other historical periods that portray pot in such a benevolent light. Even Cheech and Chong are shown to be at best dull-witted and slow.

Interestingly, certain significations, especially surrounding sexuality and marijuana, continued through this period. The correlation of marijuana to sexual promiscuity is best demonstrated in Russ Meyers now infamous, Beyond the Valley of the Dolls (170). In the opening scene we see the main characters smoke a joint and immediately begin having sex. Throughout the film, getting stoned is the excuse behind deviant sexual behaviour. At one point, a male character has sex with another male character simply because in his high state he could not control himself.6

The new CARA rating system, which is still in place today, demanded that any film with reference to drugs, even if presented in the most unglamourous of light, be rated R or restricted. This did not seem to deter too many directors in the 60s and 70s, however, because there are countless films from this period portraying drug use in all sorts of ways. Michael Starks writes,



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