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Fifth Business

---Character Response---

‘Fifth Business’, a book by Robertson Davies, has been written as a memoir of

Dunstable Ramsay. Dunstable Ramsay, renamed to Dunstan, during the course of the




book, is the narrator of this story. He writes this memoir to the Headmaster of the school,

where he was the Assistant Head and Senior History Master before his retirement. But

the memoir is only to be opened after his death, not before that. This information about

the book certainly implies that the content of the book and the way in which the life of

Dunstan and others has been described can be biased to a very great extent.

Dunstan has been observed as a very sincere and stiff person. But the abnormality in

his character does not show up till someone else mentions it to him. This is not to say that

Dunstan hides what was not very normal about him but it shows that during his life there

were others, because of whom Dunstan got a chance to think about his life, his nature and

his personality as a whole. We get to know a lot about him right from the beginning of

the story but a very important instance in his life is when the readers of the story get to

know more about Dunstan in a very straightforward manner. This is when Diana tells

Dunstable to change his name and says, “Why don’t you change it to Dunstan? St.

Dunstan was a marvellous person and very much like you � mad about learning, terribly

stiff and stern and scowly, and an absolute wizard at withstanding temptation.”

(Robertson Davies. -). It clearly states for the readers, that Dunstan is a person who

seeks knowledge, which implies that he must be having deep insight into subjects he

seeks knowledge about, for instance, about saints and their lives. We also know that he

wrote several books on this subject. He is also someone who can easily express himself,

verbally and in writing. He is an expressive person with a great ability to form strong

opinions. This quote by Diana tells us that Dunstan is a stiff and stern person, a man with

proper principles and a person who follows rules at an age of about 0. Something here

can give the readers an indication of the kind of person Dunstan is going to change into

once he grows up. It foreshadows that a person who can have so much mental control at

such a small age, might grow up to be a very mentally-strong individual. He is very good

at withstanding temptation. But the most important fact that this quote reveals to us is that

Dunstan can control his emotions and behavior. At least on the surface, he appears to be a

very composed and strong individual. But the fact that he is still tender in age makes one

wonder what the reason behind his maturity might be. One can easily attribute this to his

days in the army. It must have instilled discipline in him.

Dunstan had always been passively influenced and molded by his life at Deptford, his

family and especially his mother. He has a want of becoming something he might not

have had a chance of becoming if he were to remain at Deptford all his life. But this does

not mean he can run away from what Deptford wanted to make of him. He is loyal to his

friends and people near him. He is secretive in matters concerning anybody. He does not

like to gossip or spread rumors, something that would totally defy what Deptford taught

him. Proper in conduct, he is determined to do what he wants and takes a fancy for. But

he never seems to take a liking to anything that is not expected of a self-righteous and

correct person. He is restrained, but very hard working in what he is supposed to do. Not

extremely ambitious, he is quite frugal in money matters but does seek progress in this

field. Luckily, Boy seems to help him to a very great deal as far his economic status is

concerned. He is a determined fellow who is modest. One of his most significant

character traits is that he is a very responsible person, being able to take upon his mind a

lot of stress due to this. After all, he does maintain that he was solely responsible for

Mary Dempster’s plight if nobody else was to take or share the responsibility.

But all this makes him too much of a proper and correct human being, almost saintly.

It makes him too good to be true. But there is a flaw here. Yes, he is abnormal, not quite

like the normal person. He takes life too seriously. He never lets his inner being come

out. Very restrained, he never shows any impropriety in conduct or behavior. And we

come to know about this when Liesl says to Dunstan, “Why don’t you shake hands with

your devil, Ramsay, and change this foolish life of yours? Why don’t you, just for once,

do something inexplicable, irrational, at the devil’s bidding, and just for the hell of it?

You would be a different man” (Robertson Davies. 6). It shows us that Dunstan always

kept his devil inside him and never let him appear on the surface. It is one of the things

one might not have easily understood, but Dunstan’s soul is pure. Liesl’s last name is the

demon’s name in the play ‘The Vision of Dr. Fautus’, where Faust was a magician who

sold his soul to the devil. Dunstan is nowhere near a magician, but definitely wanted to

become one at a point in time. it is important to remember a this point that it is in the very

presence of Liesl, that Dunstan, for the very first time notices a change in the way he was

behaving. Talking about matters that were supposed to be kept secret or talking loosely

was never his style. But what is there that one might not do in the presence of the ‘Devil’.

He is not in full control of himself and his behavior. Liesl than asks Dunstan, “Who are

you? Where do you fit into poetry and myth? Do you know who I think you are Ramsay?

I think you are Fifth Business” (Robertson Davies. 7). The real purpose of Dunstable

Ramsay in this story is of being a passive recorder of events and facts. His very nature,

the way he grew up and the kind of incidents that shaped his life account for his

motivation to become what he is today. The fact that he never took a liking to what his

hometown had to teach him made him passively rebel against the kind of life he would

have had to live. He becomes a different kind of person. His feeling of being responsible

for Mrs. Dempster’s situation causes him to be like the person he is to a very great extent.

He is a very inspired person and like it has been mentioned before, very considerate and

composed. There is a great deal that could still be said about his character on further

investigation. Dunstan himself is not aware of a lot of things about himself, especially

about his place in the whole story, even though to him it might seem he is.

Percy Boyd Staunton was introduced to us on the very first page of the book. He

remains there throughout, playing a very important part in the story. He has a specific

character of his own, at the same time; he is a personification of the world around him.

As we notice, he is a very materialistic person who lacks the value of spirit and is to a

very great extent quite the opposite of Dunstan. Dunstan introduces Boy to us as his

‘lifelong friend and enemy’, making Boy’s character a very interesting one. As a child,

we see, that Boy is a spoilt brat who is a bad loser and grows up to be a very ambitious

person. He is very successful and progressive person, but only in the field of money and

status. His strength is his sharp mind, which works very well when it comes to money

matters. But he lacks any real inner strength. He is the antagonist in this story and is a

part of various incidents, which lead to his downfall as a man with values and principles.

There are many incidents in the story which contribute towards telling the readers a lot

about Boy’s character, but one of the most important times is when Boy completely

denies his guilt of throwing the ill-fated snowball, which causes the story to take the route

it does. He acts in a very irresponsible manner throughout the play. The first time we see

what a cheap coward Boy is, is when Dunstan narrates to us, “We looked into each

other’s eyes and I knew that he was afraid, and I knew also that he would fight, lie, do

anything rather than admit what I knew. And I didn’t know what in the world I could do

about it” (Robertson Davies. ). He completely denies any responsibility of the bad

incident. He does not care what his friend would feel about the whole thing or how

Dunstan was to deal with it. He does not know how to deal with moral and mental

pressures in life. He is shallow of heart and lacks the depth of character. He does not

concern himself with anything that is of no use to him.

Not caring about people’s feelings is his style and we come to know about this on two

occasions. One is when Boy gives Dunstan film reels to be developed and later Dunstan

finds that the reels contained pictures of Leola in which she is stark naked. After this,

when Dunstan is at Boy’s place, Boy says, “Nice, nice, nice! Of course it isn’t nice! Only

fools worry about what’s nice. Now sit here by me, and Dunny on the other side, and be

proud of what a stunner you are” as a reply to Leo’s repeated pleading to not show the

photos in front of Dunstan (Robertson Davies. 157). It creates a feeling of hatred for Boy,

among the readers. Very inconsiderate, he treats his wife like garbage, some object

without feelings and insults her by being so rude to her in front of their old family friend.

The next time we get an insight into Boy’s character is when, at Christmas, Leo finds a

note in Boy’s clothes that tells her of what Boy has been up to with another woman,

committing adultery? And to this Percy Boyd Staunton says, “‘There’s no reason to carry

on like that…But if you think I intend to be tied down to this sort of thing’ � and he

gestured towards the drawing-room, which was, I must say, a dismal, toy-littered waste

of wealthy, frumpish domesticity � ‘you can think again.’” (Robertson Davies. 186). This

really crowns it all. He takes absolutely no responsibility of what just happened. He does

not think committing adultery is a crime, a moral one more than anything else, but the

fact that he does not even apologize for his wrong deed illustrates a lot about his

character. He says this to Leo in front of their children, scaring them for life. Lost

innocence can never be restored. He leaves his wife, the very person who would do

absolutely anything to be like the person Boy wanted to make her, howling and heart-

broken. Truly cruel and evil, Boy probably deserved what he got in the end.

All his life, Boy only looked for wealth and fame. Being the center of attraction and

dominating situations by any means was his life’s real motive. He wanted to surpass

everything and everybody in the materialistic world. His was the thought that money

could buy anything and was the only base of a life. For him too, Deptford might have

been something in the past, long forgotten and forbidden, but scarcely do people realize,

just how much, the forces that affected them as children, really drive them. Boy enjoyed

his life on the basis of the money and wealth he had amassed. Such achievements,

without the least trace of any humanitarian qualities; what a tragedy that is and this is

exactly the kind of person Boy was. A person with no honor, Boy is a hollow person,

with impure intentions he had lead his life and died, only to be forgotten as a regular rich

fellow.



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INTRODUCTION

This project aims to construct an active international equity portfolio based on trade date Feb 8 00. We perform the key stages in the investment management process including investment analysis, formulating risk-return expectations, ¡®blending in¡¯ investment heuristics, portfolio optimisation and performance evaluation (both in and out of sample).

PRELIMINERY CONSIDERATIONS

Choice of Indices




We select the FTSE All-World index (FTAW) and 48 constituent country indices for three reasons

First, the FTAW index is a well-known and widely used benchmark index, so it can be readily accepted as a valid data origin.

Second, The FTAW covers a broad range of stock markets [both in terms of geographical area and the risk-return spectrum], including developed markets, advanced emerging markets and emerging markets. Further there are standardized indices for each of the 48 constituent countries.

Third, and related, we can obtain (from DATASTREAM) dollar denominated total return indices for all countries allowing us to conduct the analysis as US investors. As discussed by Solnik (5) , there are in fact two possibilities with respect to managing currency exposure. The first, which is the approach we take implicitly take here, is to take on currency exposure so that total portfolio risk includes currency and stock risk. The second is to hedge it using derivative securities such as forward contracts. In this case, the returns available to international investors are equivalent to local currency returns. The latter may appear more sensible; however, Solnik () finds that currency risk is actually a relatively small component of the total risk of an international equity investment, and further observes currency risk reduction effects in a portfolio diversified across many currencies [which is the case here]. It must also be highlighted that hedging involves transaction costs and requires periodic rebalancing. Hence, we decide not to hedge.

Choice of risk free rate

The risk free rate assumption, for all investment decisions, is 1 year US dollar LIBOR, at Feb 8 00. At this date, the annualized risk free rate (rf) is .4%, so the monthly risk free rate is



Choice of 15 Countries

At the first step, we excluded all the Latin America markets to avoid the political and economic risk. Brazil, Venezuela, Peru, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Argentina were excluded, from a commonsense viewpoint, because of the continuously widening negative influence from Argentine financial crisis over that area.

We decide to select the set of 15 countries with lowest average correlation to maximize international diversification benefits. To achieve this, we construct a correlation matrix from the FTAW 48 constituent countries¡¯ total return indices, with monthly frequency, for the 5-year period from 8 Feb 17 to Feb 8 00. However, based on this 5-year criteria, we find sufficient data in DATASTREAM for only countries Russia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Poland, Hungary, South Africa and Morocco have to be deleted from the list.

From the average correlation shown in Table 1, we chose the 15 countries China, India, Indonesia, Israel, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Ireland.

INVESTMENT STRATEGY

Tools for portfolio analysis

The two optimization techniques used in the project involve the Markowitz (MM) and Single Index (SIM) models.

Markowitz E(Rp)=¡ÆXiE(R) sp = ¡Æ¡ÆXiXjsi,j Single Index E(Rp)= ¦Áp+¦ÂpE(Ri) sp=¦Âpsm +se,p

MM is a standard approach to portfolio optimisation, but requires the full variance-covariance matrix to compute portfolio risk. The SIM bypasses the operational difficulties associated with this by assuming a simplified covariance structure between securities; the optimal portfolio is then computed by a ranking procedure conditional on the required inputs. The SIM is based on the standard OLS assumptions (1) E(ei)=0, () COV (ei,Rm) = 0 & () COV (ei,ej) = 0. The SIM & MM portfolio variances can be compared from the formula

MMsp=SIMsp + ¡Æ¡ÆXiXj COV (ei, ej).

From assumption () above, SIMsp will over- or under-estimate the true variance [MMsp].

A key and pertinent difference between the models is information requirements. For the MM, total information requirements are (N+N)/ (N expected returns, N variances, (N-N)/ unique covariance) making a somewhat impractical total of 15 for all 15 countries. However, the SIM, due to the simplifying assumption about the covariance structure, requires only N+ (N alpha, N beta, N r, Rm, sm) making a more manageable total of 47. For this reason, we decide to use the SIM, at the first stage, to select the 5 constituent countries for the portfolio followed by MM to blend in the required ¡®heuristics¡¯.

Single Index for preliminary country selection

Our natural starting point for the portfolio analysis is the optimal portfolio selection procedure from EGBG (00) Ch. based on the input data from the single index model. The procedure enables optimal portfolio weights to be established, and we consider the solution case with no short sales. It is based on a particular ranking criteria, and EGBG (00) note that it can be proved that the particular criteria lead to an optimal portfolio (conditional on the single index model representing the covariance structure between assets). The ranking is purely driven by the well-known Treynor ratio capturing the ratio of excess return over the risk free to beta.

Country

Israel 0.00688 0.5108 0.0040 0.007406 0.004714 0.01446

Italy 0.00454 0.8648 0.005 0.00756 0.0011 0.00841

Turkey 0.0076 .1070 0.01846 0.0164 0.008 0.007746

Pakistan 0.001 0.014 0.0061 0.001618 0.04741 0.00567

Denmark 0.00051 0.7005 0.005508 0.00505 0.001515 0.00500

Belgium 0.00148 0.5470 0.004185 0.0018 0.00004 0.008

Ireland -0.0005 0.86456 0.0074 0.001740 0.00040 0.0001

Thailand -0.011776 .1718 -0.00105 -0.00055 0.08665 -0.001406

Austria -0.007 0.677 0.00014 -0.001854 0.00411 -0.00

Taiwan -0.008457 1.075465 -0.00150 -0.00515 0.00816 -0.00471

Malaysia -0.0110 1.15881 -0.00671 -0.00874 0.018884 -0.0071

India -0.00505 0.55871 -0.006 -0.00465 0.00686 -0.007618

Indonesia -0.0114 1.6647 -0.01004 -0.0107 0.001 -0.00771

Philippine 0.00688 0.5108 -0.015548 -0.017551 0.0114 -0.0174

China 0.00454 0.8648 0.015475 0.0147 0.017 -0.44518

Table . Data required to determine optimal portfolio with rf=0.0000

Table illustrates the first part of the procedure. The Treynor ratio was computed for each of the 15 countries, and they were then ranked from highest (most desirable) to lowest (least desirable). We now require a cut-off point, and to determine the C, we compute Ci for each necessary country, where

(1)



The Ci is gradually built up in table ; it assumes that we keep adding one more country to the optimal portfolio until we get C. We seek a unique C such that all countries ranked higher satisfy Ci ¡Ý C, while countries ranked lower satisfy Ci ¡Ü C. We find C = 0.004656. Having obtained the set of 5 countries, it remains to determine the optimal portfolio weights. Each Zi value from () below is proportional to the optimal weight Xi, which is obtained by scaling each Zi using () below. Based on the five countries; we obtain -

() Z1=1.065188, Z1=1.0174, Z=0.150, Z4=0.008664, Z5=0.1604

() X1=0.4087, X=0.41, X=0.0876, X4=0.00504, X5=0.06486

Country

Israel 0.804457 55.654 0.804457 55.654 0.00166

Italy .070 54.4568 .0147 10.0844 0.00888

Turkey 1.14811 148.11 4.0467 458.15804 0.00458

Pakistan 0.01711 .67464 4.068 461.8868 0.00451

Denmark 1.6117 4.05847 5.60511 786.046766 0.004656

Belgium 0.5667 14.800467 6.8718 5.847 0.00458

Ireland 0.774 66.561 7.045 10.05 0.004041

Thailand -0.1581 164.746587 6.751 1466.50110 0.0056

Austria -0.486510 166.07705 6.0644 16.0715 0.00048

Taiwan -0.564568 117.801 5.74187 1750.857454 0.0065

Malaysia -0.507760 71.1117 5.411 181.78771 0.0018

India -0.4767 45.64847 4.886476 1867.61617 0.0011

Indonesia -0.7118 .55077 4.1758 15.86864 0.001741

Philippine -.06576 168.0657 .10748 18.17566 0.0008

China -0.0115 0.047516 .0866 18.78 0.00081

Table . Calculations for determining cut-off rate with ¦�m=0.00

Given the procedure; these are clearly the optimal weights. However, we are also required to formulate and apply ¡®heuristic¡¯ rules in the portfolio choice problem. There are numerous possibilities such as upper or lower limits, portfolio tilting or even risk controls. A key issue is, of course, how to incorporate such portfolio constraints into an analytical solution.

A second approach is therefore to consider the quadratic program from EGBG(0) (pp0) based on the Kuhn-Tucker conditions plus an upper limit weight constraint

(K1)

(K)

(K) and

(K4) (N=15)

An attempt was made to compute the solution via ¡®Excel Solver¡¯. A total of 15 ¡®target cells¡¯ are required. These represent (K1) rearranged such that each is set equal to zero. Then, in the solver format, Z and M need be varied to obtain solution values that meet (K) to (K4). Unfortunately, Excel Solver function allows only one target cell, so the solution was not obtainable.

Markowitz to build in ¡®heuristics¡¯

Therefore, we opt for the Markowitz approach via ¡®Excel Solver¡¯, which will enable us to determine portfolio weights based on the following ¡®heuristic¡¯ rules (1) No countries weight should be more than 5%, Xi ¡Ü 0.5, () No countries weight should be less than 5%, Xi ¡Ý 0.05. The rationale for the constraints is to limit single country exposure, balance the portfolio and control risk. They allow us to modify the portfolio so that it is not solely a product of historical analysis.



The portfolio strategy is based on the maximization the objective Sharpe ratio

,

where Rp is the expected return of the portfolio, and Rf is the risk free rate, sp is the total portfolio risk conditional on varying the 5 country weights under the constraints

(1) Fully invested åXi = 1;

() No short selling Xi ¡Ý 0 for all i;

() No countries weight should be more than 5%, Xi ¡Ü 0.5;

(4) No countries weight should be less than 5%, Xi ¡Ý 0.05.



We uses the Excel Solver function to solve the problem, the procedure is as follows

Firstly, we report the summary statistics (Table 4) that the Markowitz Model requires. They includes N expected returns, N variance terms & (N-N)/ unique covariance terms [N=5].

Country Israel Italy Turkey Pakistan Denmark

Expected Returns 0.0040 0.005 0.01846 0.0061 0.005508

Variance 0.0055 0.00501 0.041150 0.056 0.00666



Covariance Matrix

Country Israel Italy Turkey Pakistan Denmark

Israel 0.0055

Italy 0.0014 0.00501

Turkey 0.00788 0.00554 0.041150

Pakistan 0.0018 0.00047 0.0066 0.056

Denmark 0.00074 0.0016 0.005 -0.00074 0.00666

Table 4. Summary Statistics for Markowitz Approach

Secondly, we input those data into the Excel spread sheet (Table 5) and define B, B10, B11, B1, and B1 as the adjustable cells. Then we added the following constrains into solver function (1) B+ B10+B11+B1+ B1 =1, ()$B$ $B$1 ¡Ü 0.5, and () $B$ $B$1 ¡Ý 0.05. After that, we set B0 as the target cell to be maximized by varying the 5 adjustable cells representing the constraints. B0 is equal to the (B17-B1)/B18. B17and B18 will vary based on the weights of the 5 countries in our portfolio. We set 0% as default weights for each country, as solver requires initial guesses.

7 A B C

8 Country (Xi) Weight

Israel (X1) 0.

10 Italy (X) 0.

11 Turkey (X) 0.

1 Pakistan (X4) 0.

1 Denmark (X5) 0.

14 X1+X+X+X4+X5 1.00

15

16 Monthly Annually

17 Expected Return (Rp) 0.0065 0.117018

18 Total Risk (sp) 0.07408 0.5665

1 Interest Rate (Rf) 0.0000 0.0400

0 Objective Sharpe Ratio 0.0801 0.6158

Table 5. Excel Solver function Inputs

The solver output (Table 6) shows that the maximum achievable Sharpe ratio (by varying the weights of the 5 countries under those constraints) is 0.14514 (monthly). Thus, the weights of those 5 countries in our portfolio are Israel (X1) = 0.5, Italy (X) = 0.5, Turkey (X) = 0.085, Pakistan (X4) = 0.05, and Denmark (X5) = 0.167005.

Target Cell (Max)

Cell Name Original Value Final Value

$B$0 Objective Sharpe Ratio 0.07714 0.14514

Adjustable Cells

Cell Name Original Value Final Value Reduced Gradient

$B$ Israel (X1) 0. 0.5 0.010401

$B$10 Italy (X) 0. 0.5 0.0075

$B$11 Turkey (X) 0. 0.085 0

$B$1 Pakistan (X4) 0. 0.05 -0.0786

$B$1 Denmark (X5) 0. 0.167005 0

Constraints

Cell Name Cell Value Formula Status Slack

$B$14 X1+X+X+X4+X5 1.00 $B$14=1 Binding 0

$B$ Israel (X1) 0.5 $B$=0.05 Not Binding 0

$B$10 Italy (X) 0.5 $B$10=0.05 Not Binding 0

$B$11 Turkey (X) 0.085 $B$11=0.05 Not Binding 0.67005

$B$1 Pakistan (X4) 0.05 $B$1=0.05 Binding 0.

$B$1 Denmark (X5) 0.167005 $B$1=0.05 Not Binding 0.185

$B$ Israel (X1) 0.5 $B$=0.5 Binding 0.

$B$10 Italy (X) 0.5 $B$10=0.5 Binding 0.

$B$11 Turkey (X) 0.085 $B$11=0.5 Not Binding 0.05

$B$1 Pakistan (X4) 0.05 $B$1=0.5 Not Binding 0

$B$1 Denmark (X5) 0.167005 $B$1=0.5 Not Binding 0.117005

Table 6. Microsoft Excel .0 Solver Answer and Sensitivity Report

From the optimal weight we obtained from Markowitz Approach we can calculate out the following basic summary of our portfolio (Table 7).

Monthly Annually

Expected Return (Rp) 0.001 0.116148

Total Risk (sp) 0.05774 0.0005

Interest Rate (Rf) 0.0000 0.0400

Porfolio Beta 0.7701 0.7701

Objective Sharpe ratio 0.14514 0.458768

Treynor ratio portfolio 0.008 0.11485

Table 7. Summary for the optimal portfolio with rf = .4% p.a.

Computation of Efficiency Frontier

We begin to trace out the portfolio efficient frontier by the suggested approach in EGBG (P10-11) by varying the risk free rate. We select 5% as the interest rate for obtain the optimal portfolio, and solve it through solver function, and then we obtain the optimal portfolio with respect to 5% risk less rate. The weights of the 5 countries are Israel (X1) = 0.5, Italy (X) = 0.5, Turkey (X) = 0.1805, Pakistan (X4) = 0.05, and Denmark (X5) = 0.06065. Its annualised expected return is 0.14464, the annualised total risk is 0.4585, and the variance is 0.060465.



From the basic statistics for those portfolios shown in Table 8, we can conclude that the variance of a new portfolio consisting of &frac1; of portfolio (rf =.4%) and &frac1; of portfolio (rf = 5%) is

s = (&frac1;)(0.0005) + (&frac1;)(0.4585 ) + (&frac1;)(&frac1;) s1 = (0.14)

Therefore, s1 = 0.04771.

Country (Xi) P1 (rf = .4%) P (rf =5%) &frac1;P1+ &frac1;P

Israel (X1) 0.5 0.5 0.5

Italy (X) 0.5 0.5 0.5

Turkey (X) 0.085 0.1805 0.16015

Pakistan (X4) 0.05 0.05 0.05

Denmark (X5) 0.167005 0.06065 0.1185

W1+W+W+W4+W5 1.00 1.00 1.00



Summary Annually Annually Annually

Expected Return 0.116148 0.14464 0.157

Total Risk 0.0005 0.4585 0.14

Table 8. basic statistics for portfolio (P1, P, and &frac1;P1+ &frac1;P)



After we calculated out the expected returns, variance and covariance, then we could trace out the efficient frontier from varying the weights of P1 and P.

The efficient frontier is showed in the Figure 1. In our case, the risk free rate, rf, is .4%, the optimal portfolio is the tangent point (0.0005, 0.116148), and the minimum variance portfolio is the starting point (0.16461, 0.088857).



Figure 1. Efficient Frontier with the minimum risk portfolio and optimal portfolio.

PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS

As highlighted by EBGB(0) performance evaluation is an integral aspect of any investment decision making process. In this section, the ex-post performance of the Single index and Markowitz portfolios are analyzed over the sample estimation and subsequent one-year period. We aim to discover whether the selected portfolios have achieved sufficient return conditional on various performance measures. The required input data, based on annualized mean return and standard deviation, is summarized in table . For the in-sample period, the risk free assumption rf=0.054777, which represent the annualized mean monthly rate. For the out of sample period, the risk free assumption is rf=0.00568, which represents the annualized mean weekly rate.

We observe that, in the in-sample period, the ¡®Single Index 5¡¯ (SI5) and ¡®Markowitz 5¡¯ (M5) portfolios exhibited higher return and standard deviation than the FTSE All World (FTAW), while both portfolio betas were less than 1. For the out of sample period, the general observation is that all risky equity portfolios under-performed the risk free. From these preliminary observations, we can move to more definitive conclusions by utilizing a range of analytical techniques.



In Sample -

MARKOWITZ 5 0.116148 0.0005 0.7701

SINGLE INDEX 5 0.1555 0.158 0.81

FTSE ALL-WORLD 0.06085 0.165876 1



Out of Sample -

MARKOWITZ 5 -0.04885 0.171641 0.6084

SINGLE INDEX 5 -0.066 0.18188 0.6401

FTSE ALL-WORLD -0.16580 0.168 1

Table . Performance measurement input data

The Sharpe Ratio

As noted by EBGB(0), in the return & standard deviation space, all combinations of a risky portfolio and risk free asset lie along the straight line connecting the risky portfolio and risk free asset. The Sharpe ratio is the slope of this line and represents the ratio of excess return (over risk free) divided by return standard deviation (total risk). More formally -



Under this measure, the greater the Sharpe ratio, the better the portfolio performance. Further, since the ratio is based on total risk, it can be used to rank actively managed equity portfolios. In this respect, we note that our five asset portfolios represent active selections from the set of 4 countries that comprise the FTAW. The respective Sharpe ratios are reported in table 10.

In Sample ranking Out of sample ranking

Rank Portfolio Sharpe ratio Rank Portfolio Sharpe ratio

1 SINGLE INDEX 5 0.860 1 MARKOWITZ 5 -0.41046

MARKOWITZ 5 0.06540 SINGLE INDEX 5 -0.481175

FTSE ALL-WORLD 0.066 FTSE ALL-WORLD -1.08105

Table 10. Sharpe ratio portfolio performance ranking

From the table, we observe that, over both periods, both the SI5 and M5 portfolios outperformed the FTAW, but neither SI5 nor M5 dominated. For the in-sample period, the respective factors of market outperformance, for the SI5 and M5 portfolios, were around 8.7 and 8.7 times the FTAW Sharpe ratio. For the out of sample period, the negative Sharpe ratios indicate underperformance with respect to the risk free. The respective factors of market outperformance, for the M5 and SI5 portfolios, were around 0.4 and 0.4 times the negative FTAW Sharpe ratio.

Differential return when risk is measured by beta

Again, this is appropriate for actively managed equity portfolios. As discussed by EGBG(0), the essential intuition is to compare the return on an active portfolio to a passive strategy of combining the risk free and FTAW to obtain a portfolio of identical beta. The differential return, known as the Jensen alpha measure, represents the (beta) risk adjusted abnormal return. More formally -



The respective ratios are reported in table 11, and we note that the performance ranking is identical to the Sharpe ratio.

In Sample ranking Out of sample ranking

Rank Portfolio Alpha Rank Portfolio Alpha

1 SINGLE INDEX 5 0.065758 1 MARKOWITZ 5 0.076646

MARKOWITZ 5 0.05651 SINGLE INDEX 5 0.06458

Table 11 Performance ranking by the Jensen differential performance index

Decomposition of performance

The alpha measure, or return to selectivity, can be further decomposed into the return to diversifiable risk and net selectivity via the technique of Fama decomposition.

Markowitz approach Single Index Approach

Performance analysis (annual basis) in sample Performance analysis (annual basis) in sample

Fama Decomposition Fama Decomposition

Return Beta Return Beta

Selected Portfolio (P1) 0.116148 0.7701 Selected Portfolio (P1) 0.1555 0.81

Benchmark (P) 0.0565 0.7701 Benchmark (P) 0.05767 0.81

Portfolio alpha (P1-P) 0.05651 Portfolio alpha (P1-P) 0.065758

Benchmark (P) 0.0610 1.0658 Benchmark (P) 0.0666 1.78

Divers. Risk (P-P) 0.00474 Divers. Risk (P-P) 0.0085

Selectivity (P1-P) 0.0540 Selectivity (P1-P) 0.06864



Markowitz approach Single Index Approach

Performance analysis (annual basis) Out of sample Performance analysis (annual basis) out of sample

Fama Decomposition Fama Decomposition

Return Beta Return Beta

Selected Portfolio (P1) -0.04885 0.608 Selected Portfolio (P1) -0.066 0.6401

Benchmark (P) -0.1651 0.6084 Benchmark (P) -0.1181 0.6401

Portfolio alpha (P1-P) 0.076646 Portfolio alpha (P1-P) 0.06458

Benchmark (P) -0.1867 0.8740 Benchmark (P) -0.10 0.687

Divers. Risk (P-P) -0.06061 Divers. Risk (P-P) -0.06781

Selectivity (P1-P) 0.1607 Selectivity (P1-P) 0.1176

Table 1 Performance analysis by Fama decomposition

As discussed by EBGB(0), this is achieved by comparing the active portfolio return to the return on a passive portfolio with the same total risk, i.e. the total risk of the passive portfolio (which is all systematic) is set equal to the total risk of the active portfolio. This allows a second benchmark to be computed, which represents the ¡®required¡¯ alpha from an active fund conditional on its total risk. Any more than this represents a pure selection gain or ¡®net selectivity¡¯.

For the in sample SI5 portfolio, we compute the beta and return of the required naïve passive portfolio with the same total risk.



The Fama decomposition for all four portfolios are reported in table 1 and are illustrated for SI5 and M5 in fig 1. For the SI5 in sample portfolio, we observe that only around 4% of the alpha was required to achieve the benchmark return for diversifiable risk. Similarly for the M5 in sample portfolio, around 6% of the alpha represented a net selection gain.





Figure . Performance Analysis by Fama Decomposition

For the out of sample period, the positive alpha measures for the SI5 and M5 portfolios must be put into the overall context of a negative market risk premium of nearly ¨C4%. Figure illustrates the Fama decomposition for the out of sample M5. The passive benchmark P illustrates that RP is the ¡®benchmark¡¯ return required from an active portfolio to ¡®compete¡¯ with a naïve portfolio of equivalent total risk to P1, leading to negative return to diversifiable risk. In this scenario, even fund managers with negative alpha can legitimately claim selection skills if they exceed RP. We note that positive alpha required positive net selectivity in excess of the magnitude of return to diversifiable risk; this was comfortably achieved by M5. However, the overall M5 return was around 7% below the risk free. We observe similar decomposition effects for the SI5 out of sample portfolio, where the return was nearly % below the risk free.

Performance summary

Both SI5 and M5 portfolios were market outperformers with the SI5 featuring as the dominant in sample portfolio. In this respect, we note that the SI5 represented an unconstrained solution, while the M5 portfolio was optimized subject to several constraints resulting in a performance trade off. However, these ¡®heuristics¡¯ proved beneficial for the out of sample, M5 has % more return than SI5. Illustrating that limiting country exposure and balancing out a portfolio can act as prudent modifications in supplementing a purely historically driven analysis. Finally, in the out of sample period, we must acknowledge that both portfolios underperformed the risk free.

CONCLUSION

We need not look very far for the source of the out of sample. At the current time, there appears to be a world-wide lack of confidence in global equities driven by a range of factors including the general fall out from the dot-com bubble, a number of high profile accounting scandals, the plague of political instability in respect of Iraq sending shockwaves across global stock markets. We note that US and UK stock markets have fallen heavily for the last years or so, and maybe, therefore, we should have considered a bond or even equity put option portfolio given the stock market environment. Indeed, we were only able to find one rising stock market ¨C Pakistan (by 1%) - for the last year, but the portfolio weight amounted to only 5%. If only we had a crystal ball!





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Marketing Plan

This marketing plan is going to be over Wal-Mart. Since Wal-Mart is such a big firm, only the food department in the Round Lake Beach Wal-Mart will be examined. Wal-Mart competes in the retail industry. It sells many different products from many different suppliers at very low prices. Over the past three years sales have done nothing but gone up. Wal-Mart has always had a food department but it wasn’t until about years ago when the Round Lake Beach Wal-Mart got their coolers. The coolers contained such products as milk, dairy products, and assorted frozen foods. Since the addition of these the sales have gone up anywhere from 15%-50% a year.

Wal-Mart is thought of to be more of a family store, but you could say that they target all races and ages of people. They offer different kinds of products that will suit every persons needs. They offer products that satisfy different races of customers and different ages of customers. It is an open market and all types of people are allowed and will be served with the best customer service possible.

Wal-Mart’s food department has many competitors. It has an advantage over stores like Target, but it has a huge disadvantage against stores such as Jewel, Dominick’s, and Super K-Mart. Wal-Mart has the lowest prices out of all of these stores so you would think that they would be at the top of the market, but that is not the case. Wal-Mart has a relatively small food department compared to Jewel, Dominick’s, and Super K, but compared to Target it is relatively big. Stores like Jewel and Dominick’s offer more products and product lines than Wal-Mart does. For example, if you look at Gatorade. Wal-Mart carries four different flavors and only three different sizes. However, Jewel will offer about 10 different flavors in about six different sizes. Another strength that the other stores have over Wal-Mart is that they have a fresh produce section. They carry fresh fruit, vegetables, and meat. Basically ever store has their own strengths and weaknesses, it is all up to the consumer to choose where they shop. The SWOT analysis of the Round Lake Beach Wal-Mart food department is located at the end of this paper.




Has far as sales goes Wal-Mart expects nothing but the best. Wal-Mart is always looking for an increase in profits and sales. Over the next year the Round Lake Beach food department can expect to go up in sales and over the next five years they can expect the same. They can expect this because year by year the food department is getting bigger and bigger. They are also ordering more and more products from more and more suppliers. The food department is probably wanting to stay the same in the future if they can not increase, They however do not want to decrease sales and I would say they would go up in sales anywhere between 5% to 0% at the most.

Wal-Mart tends to not venture far into the new product thing. They are usually very consistent with the products they offer and from who they get it from. The newest stuff they will get will of course just be stuff that is an extension of a product line. For example, they will offer a new flavor of pop from the Pepsi Company or they will offer a new bag of chips from the Frito Lay company. Another situation in which they receive new products is during holidays as a seasonal item. For example, they receive egg nog during the Christmas season and receive a great amount of different candies during Halloween. The new usually replaces the old however. What they do to get rid of the older items often differs. Sometimes these older items will just be put onto clearance or comped just to rid of them. If these strategies don’t work they often just delete the item from the system for ever. The packaging of these items does not depend on Wal-Mart. The packaging is done by all of the suppliers that Wal-Mart is partners with. The packaging by the suppliers is usually consistent in what is wanted by the customers. The packaging usually contains the nutrition information and all of the other things that labels contain. Over the next five years you can expect the Round Lake Beach Wal-Mart to keep it simple. They will not do anything out of the ordinary and by doing it this way the customers will continue to flock in.

As far as pricing goes, Wal-Mart is at the top of the chain. One of their slogans is “Always Low Prices” and they do stay true to that. They offer certain things on rollback and clearance. Their normal food products are cheap anyways. For example, the milk is only a $1.8 a gallon, the cheapest anywhere. This is the reason why Round Lake Beach’s milk sales is number one in the district and leads all other stores. There are some environmental factors that might cause a change in some prices. All of Wal-Mart’s prices in the department should not change in anyway over the future. If they did this would ultimately lead to false advertising because after all their slogan is “Always Low Prices.”

When it comes to advertising Wal-Mart does the normal commercials and newspaper ads. They do not need to do much because their name is already out there in the market. People know what Wal-Mart is and what they provide. A thing that would help is if they found a way to show some of the items they provide through their commercials. In all of their commercials they often just emphasize low prices and customer service, it would help if they showed some of the products they offer also. This would be a helpful strategy that would just bring in all of the more customers.

The plan in the food department at the Round Lake Beach Wal-Mart is already put into place and it can only get better. Wal-Mart has existed for many many years and there is no way that anything would happen that would jeopardize the future of this outstanding company.







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General Electric Reg Jones and Jack Welch

Introduction

Wall Street Journal proclaimed Reg Jones as a management legend. Jones was well known for the creation of sectors that managed the strategic business units exclusively designed to support strategic planning activities, key characteristic on GEs management process. Jones entered to the CEO position with a challenging, decentralized organization (10 departments) changed at the time from 10 departments to 4 SBU, nevertheless, the new structure was still shaky. He successfully managed through the change and as a result, Jones was very pleased with the accomplishments and continued pushing the strategic planning approach. By 180’s, Jones vision was to positioned the company to a sustained earnings growth faster that the growth of the US economy at the time. This is when he started preparing the road for his successor, at the time one of his Sector Business head, Jack Welch. As described by the Wall Street Journal, GE “replaced a legend with a live wire”. Full of ideas, energy and extremely aggressive he took over the CEO position with the idea of making GE #1 Or # in any arena where they were competing, as well structure and diversified company. Every business needed to be evaluated under the following criteria Fix, sell or close. On the other hand Welch believed in a lean and agile organization, eliminating all those positions that were not adding direct value to the processes in placed. Jack Welch was also very radical in chipping away bureaucracy eliminating the sector organization previously established by Jones, serious reductions of personnel took place.

Contributions




REG JONES CONTRIBUTIONS JACK WELCH CONTRIBUTIONS

He made the SBU structure and planning processes inherited to work At first he created two additional sectors Technical Systems, Services and Materials

He hired strategic planners during the transition period Introduce a new planning approach oriented to key issues.

Exited from businesses that were not providing the expected returns. A total of 7 product lines. Introduce the plan being better than the best, targeting computer-aided design and manufacturing, medical systems and financial / information services.

The planning system implemented helped identify flat businesses Automated most of its core businesses

Jones was able to assign resources to those businesses that were growing or expected to grow based on GE Business Mix Exited those business were GE was not #1 or #

First time management performance measurements (planned vs delivered) Included restricted stocks and special bonuses for meeting their goals

Created incentive compensation based on performance Added additional benefits for the employees’ individual contributions.

Strategic Planning became ingrained to 80% of GE employees, it helped justify resources and gain confidence at the top level. Strategies were approved on a yearly basis, streamline the processes and ensure that staff acted as a consultant rather than a police force.

Created the Sector concept, six major categories Sectors were finally reduced to four, with some business reporting directly to CEO

Introduction of corporate planning challenges Created the Three-Circle concept, which required one of the following fix, sell or close

Sectors facilitated the Board review process Focused on establishing a lean and agile structure, serious destaffing took place.

Jones corporate planning staff identified GE greatest potential areas energy, communication / info / sensing, energy applications / productivity, materials / resources, transportation/propulsion and services

The Sector creation helped him identify his successor

Reg Jones had very good relationship with the government

Sales growth at rate of 185% from 170-80 and Operating profit by 08% Sales growth at a rate of 111% from 180-0 and Operating profit by 15%

Employees were reduced by 7.7% from 170-80 Employees were reduced by 18.6% from 180-0 (6% from 181-10)

Conclusion

At the time when Reg Jones took over the CEO position and even though the changes were drastic, it still required a lot of efforts from the Head office to evaluate and fully understand 4 in depth analysis and strategic plans. At first Jones hired the necessary individuals and trained others in strategic planning, however eventually he realized that a new layer was required. Jones divided the evaluation process within six (6) sectors, paying particular attention to business development opportunities. He exerted a tremendous amount of pressure in order to make sure that everyone was on board the companys philosophy at the time, and that precisely is one of the reason why employees, years after, were surveyed and it surfaced that 80% of the employees had engrained the strategic thinking and planning approach. Having said that, it facilitated the path to Jack Welch to eliminate layers in the organization, since the mindset was already established. Nevertheless, Welchs approach was more aggressive and specific to staff and bureaucracy reduction. Welch also believed that line managers, who had the capacity to execute, are the ones who have to develop their own strategies and that they should focus on key issues rather than theoretical strategy, which I happen to fully agree. However, we have to bear in mind that the changes proposed by Welch would not have been successful if the foundation was there, foundation created by Reg Jones vision. Under Jack Welch management financial forecast were also amended, giving more flexibility to the line managers to change it when the market conditions changed or competitive situation deviated from the original one. This proposed change is somehow difficult to accept since the numbers can be easily manipulated, even though what Welch wanted to create was a more responsive management style. It also gives room to the manipulation of the final results to the convenience of the line manager.

Today

In summary, Reg Jones set the foundation to the empire the Jack Welch as GEs CEO built. Jones wisely recognized the opportunity of strategic plans, but more so the need to measure and compensate based on performance (results vs plan). Jones recognized the necessity to expand on the International arena as well as the importance of the Service industry, which as of 000 it represented 75% of GEs revenues in comparison to GE products.

In the late 188 GE employees were submitted to what is called work out sessions, which sole intentions was to get rid of unnecessary bureaucracy while providing a forum where employees and their supervisors could work out new ways in dealing with each other. Also, GE started looking into developing effective processes rather than controlling individual activities, increasing customer satisfaction, treating suppliers as partners and constantly striving for high quality levels. Welch did not try to impose a corporate global strategy, he let each business take responsibility for implementing the appropriate plans, but always monitoring their performance and making sure they comply with GE philosophy. Welchs commitment for employee development is shown through the 60-degree feedback session, which helps identify training needs, coaching opportunities, and career planning (in or out the company). But his latest contribution to the quality of the company is what he called the A players with Four Es, which established the you have to rank your employees in five categories, which are top 10% as 1, strong 15% as , highly valued 50% as , borderline 15% as 4 and least effective 10% as 5. Meaning that anyone rank 5 had to leave the company. Jack Welch called this initiative a contribution to the quality of the company, however in my opinion, this philosophy is the beginning of a major future problem, creating high levels of uncertainty among employees, which leads to dissatisfaction, which leads to lack of commitment or loyalty and ends up in high turnover levels, not without mentioning strikes and problems with unions, as we are currently witnessing.



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Human beings generally tend to act according to sensible decisions they make in advance. But when we permit ourselves to be driven by an impulse, we act contrary to what had already been planned. Consequently, we are filled with overwhelming emotions and our state of mind is noticeably affected. This seems to be the case of the main character in “A Pair of Silk Stockings”. In the story, Mrs. Sommers underwent a profound transformation in her state of mind the afternoon she went shopping.

At the beginning of her shopping bout, Mrs. Sommers was very worried and tired. She was so concerned about her children’s needs that she was eager to spend the fifteen dollars she had found on them. As she wanted to provide them with “fresh and dainty” attire, she had to be very careful about how she intended to spend her money. Since she did not want to act hastily, she was very anxious. So she drew a up a wise investment plan for a “proper and judicious use of the money”. She thought that the most sensible way to make it more profitable was by going to bargain counters. Besides, Mrs. Sommers became rather weary. She was always so busy doing the household chores and taking care of the children that she had little time to rest. The day she went shopping, she was so excited that she had even forgotten to have lunch. When she arrived at the store, she felt so weak and fatigued that she had to rest before a counter in order to gather strength to start searching for bargains.

All of a sudden, when she came across a pair of silk stockings, she became so excited that she abandoned herself to her sudden impulses. After her first purchase, she felt so invigorated that she began to spend the money on herself, something she had not done in a long time. Besides, she bought a pair of boots that made her feel both self-assured and satisfied. She also bought a pair of gloves and two high-priced magazines. At that point, she did not care about how much she spent as long as she got what she desired. It seemed that the more she bought, the more excitement she felt. After that, she treated herself to a delicious meal at an expensive restaurant and to a play at the theatre. Besides, she was quite proud of her appearance and the effect it had on the people surrounding her. At least for a while, she felt she belonged to the well-dressed crowd and she gained a sense of self-assurance, because her presence at the restaurant as well as at the theatre “created no surprise”.




Unfortunately, when the play was over, she realized she had to face her old stark reality again. She felt unbearably sad because her dream came to and end. When she went to the bus stop to take the cable car to go back home, she yearned not to reach her destination. She wished to remain in that dreamy state that allowed her to forget, at least for an afternoon, her life full of responsibilities and restrictions. For this reason, she greatly desired the cable car to “go on and on with her forever”.

All in all, Mrs. Sommers was driven by and impulse which brought about an unexpected change in her state of mind the afternoon she went shopping. It is not unusual to find somebody who fails to control their emotions. As we are human beings with irresistible impulses, what we should do is to permit ourselves to fulfill our desires, at least every once in a while.



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Buddy

Buddy comes from a family, which doesn’t really treat buddy with respect. His mother and his father don’t help Buddy especially not his father. One day Buddy was offered to go on a school trip but he didn’t dare tell his mum or dad because he knew they couldn’t afford it. So as Buddy really wanted to go on the trip he stool £5.00 out of his mother’s purse. Once Buddy stool £5.00 he said to himself that he better stop stealing other wise he’ll turn out like his father. At school Buddy was a very bright kid and he was moved to the top class which was called the E class. E meant E = express. Buddy thought that he should tell his mum about the money but he knew that he would get yelled at. Buddy was quiet upset because his mother and father spent more money on cigarettes and not on him. Buddy mum and dad always argued and it was normal about Buddy’s dad wasting a lot of money at the pub and he mixing with the wrong crowd.

Buddy was in his room and heard the door g and it was his mum he could tell that she was in a bad mood how she slammed shut the door. Buddy knew that his mum found out that buddy had taken the money from her purse. At first buddy denied it and said that it could have been some one from work in her office but then buddy owned up and said it was him. Buddy felt sad and wanted to be forgiven but a strange thing happened was that his mum was crying because buddy took the money. Buddy felt really bad because buddy had never seen his mum cry before. Buddy was pleading for forgiveness but his mum shouted out

“ Father like Son.”




After that buddy went to sleep trying to thing of what he could do to make his mum forgive him but he thought of nothing. In the morning went down stairs and it was really quiet and buddy went into the kitchen and saw his dad asleep sprawled over the table. Buddy woke him up to ask where his mum was but buddy’s dad just shagged his shoulder. Buddy’s dad took him for a walk and decided that its time for the truth. For the past couple of years I have been in prison because I broke into someone’s house. Buddy was shocked and carry on walking. Once Buddy got home he realised that his mum probably left because of he could hear them arguing the night before. Buddy was hoping that when he got home from school that his mum would be home but when buddy got home she wasn’t there. Buddy was waiting for his mum to come home but after months of waiting buddy gave up and knew that she wouldn’t come home. During this time it was just buddy and his dad and they didn’t talk to each other because they had nothing to talk about and wasn’t very fond of each other. Buddy thought that it was his fault that his mum left because he stool the money from his mum purse.

While buddy mum wasn’t there he didn’t have any more to catch the bus the bus to school so he hate to walk because his dad didn’t have a job and buddy thought that he wouldn’t ever have a job. And because they didn’t have enough money buddy didn’t have the right uniform because he’s trousers broke so he hate to were blue jeans.

As buddy’s mum went his dad hate to get rid of his aryl and when he got home from selling is aryl he was moaning about to buddy trying to make out it was all his fault. Buddy was still trying to get over his mum leaving so suddenly. He went to school like normal but it was getting worse. Mr Normington was making fun of he. Because of the clothes he wore and how he smells and that put buddy real down.

The next day Mr Normington gave out a letter about parents evening and normally it was his mother that goes but buddy didn’t know if he should show hiss father or not. H thought that he could make up an excuse saying that his mother and father have to work that night and can’t fit any of the times. But buddy went to school the next day and Mr Normington asked if his mother or father was going. Mr Normington was nearly shouting at buddy saying he got a time for every parent and he want to know by tomorrow.

Buddy went home and decided to show his dad the letter but when buddy showed him the letter he had know idea what it was. So buddy explains and buddies dad said things like what’s it for and why should I go.

So then Buddy went into school and told Mr Normington that he could go.

When the parent evening came buddies father go dressed up all in leather. When they were walking to the school buddy kept a few steps ahead so it didn’t look like they were together. Buddy was worried about his dad. He thought what if he makes a total fool of himself.

Buddy thought that school was really far away because they were walking really slowly and buddy could tell that his dad was worried.

Once the parents evening was over buddy was happy that it was over even though it went all right.



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F. WHAT DOES CAPITAL STRUCTURE THEORY ATTEMPT TO DO? WHAT LESSONS CAN BE LEARNED FROM CAPITAL STRUCTURE THEORY?

ANSWER CAPITAL STRUCTURE THEORY PROVIDES SOME INSIGHTS INTO THE VALUE OF DEBT VERSUS EQUITY FINANCING. AN UNDERSTANDING OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE THEORY WILL AID A MANAGER IN FINDING HIS OR HER FIRM¡¦S OPTIMAL CAPITAL STRUCTURE.

MODERN CAPITAL STRUCTURE THEORY BEGAN IN 158, WHEN MODIGLIANI AND MILLER PROVED, UNDER A VERY RESTRICTIVE SET OF ASSUMPTIONS, INCLUDING THE ASSUMPTION OF NO TAXES, THAT A FIRM¡¦S VALUE IS UNAFFECTED BY ITS CAPITAL STRUCTURE. MM¡¦S RESULTS SUGGEST THAT IT DOESN¡¦T MATTER HOW A FIRM FINANCES ITS OPERATIONS BECAUSE CAPITAL STRUCTURE IS IRRELEVANT. DESPITE ITS UNREALISTIC ASSUMPTIONS, MM¡¦S IRRELEVANCE RESULT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT. BY INDICATING THE CONDITIONS UNDER WHICH CAPITAL STRUCTURE IS IRRELEVANT, MM ALSO PROVIDED US WITH SOME CLUES ABOUT WHAT IS REQUIRED FOR CAPITAL STRUCTURE TO BE RELEVANT, AND HENCE, TO AFFECT A FIRM¡¦S VALUE.

MM LATER CONSIDERED THE IMPACT OF CORPORATE TAXES. BECAUSE INTEREST PAYMENTS ARE DEDUCTIBLE FOR TAX PURPOSES, THE TOTAL CASH FLOWS TO ALL INVESTORS ARE GREATER FOR A LEVERAGED FIRM THAN AN UNLEVERAGED FIRM. EACH DOLLAR OF DEBT, D, INCREASES THE VALUE OF THE FIRM BY TcD., WHERE Tc IS THE CORPORATE TAX RATE. TcD. IS CALLED THE ¡§TAX SHIELD¡¨ OF DEBT. MM¡¦S MODEL IMPLIES THAT FIRMS SHOULD HAVE 100% DEBT FINANCING.




WHEN BANKRUPTCIES ARE CONSIDERED, THERE IS A TRADE-OFF BETWEEN THE TAX SHIELD ON DEBT AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF FINANCIAL DISTRESS. AT LOW LEVELS OF DEBT, THE TAX SHIELD ON DEBT IS GREATER THAN THE EXPECTED COSTS OF FINANCIAL DISTRESS. AT HIGH LEVELS OF DEBT, EXPECTED BANKRUPTCY COSTS EXCEED THE TAX SHIELD. THIS IMPLIES THAT THERE IS AN OPTIMAL LEVEL OF DEBT.

SIGNALING THEORY RECOGNIZES THAT MANAGERS HAVE BETTER INFORMATION THAN INVESTORS. THIS IMPLIES THAT MANAGERS WOULD SELL STOCK WHEN THE PRICE OF THE STOCK IS GREATER THAN ITS TRUE VALUE. INVESTORS KNOW THIS, AND SO STOCK PRICE SHOULD FALL WHEN COMPANIES ISSUE DEBT.

AGENCY COSTS ARE PRESENT WHEN MANAGERS WASTE FREE CASH FLOW ON PERQUISITES OR NEGATIVE NPV PROJECTS. HIGH LEVELS OF DEBT ¡§BOND¡¨ THE FREE CASH FLOW, SINCE MUCH OF THE FREE CASH FLOW MUST BE COMMITTED TO SERVICING THE DEBT. THIS PREVENTS MANAGERS FROM WASTING FREE CASH FLOW, AND SO HIGH LEVELS OF DEBT SHOULD REDUCE AGENCY COSTS.



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Nationality Swiss

Population 7.11 million (18)

Annual Growth Rate 0.%




Infant Mortality Rate 5/1,000.

Life -

Expectancy Men 74 years of age

Women 81 years of age



Religions Roman Catholic 46%, Protestant 40%, others 5%, No religion %

Languages German 64%, French 1%, Italian 8%,

Romansch 1%, Other 8%

Education Attendance 100%

Literacy 100%

Workforce .8 million. Agriculture 4%. Industry %

Services & Government 67%

Media SRG SSR id�e suisse (the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation)

The largest provider of electronic media in Switzerland. Its services encompass seven TV channels and 18 radio stations, complemented by websites and teletext.

Communications Telephones - main lines in use 4.8 million (18)

Telephones - mobile cellular 810,170 (1)

Telephone system excellent domestic and international services

Domestic extensive cable and microwave radio relay networks

International satellite earth stations - Intelsat (Atlantic Ocean and Indian Ocean)

Radio broadcast stations AM 4, FM 11 (plus many low power stations), short-wave (18)

Radios 7.1 million (17)

Television broadcast stations 108 (17)

Televisions .1 million (17)

Internet Service Providers (ISP’s) 115 (Switzerland and Liechtenstein) (1)

.0 Stability of the Swiss Political System



.1 Structure of the Swiss Legal/Regulatory System

. Reliability of Switzerland as a Trading Partner

. Constitutional Guarantees

.4 Protection of Property Rights





.0 Stability of the Swiss Political System

Although, Switzerland has a diverse society, it has a remarkable political stability, which is the result of its policy of strict neutrality. Since, Switzerland is maintaining its neutrality, the country has become a refuge for capital all over the world. Both political and neutrality play a major role in Switzerland to create economic neutrality. It has the highest per capita income of any industrial nation and the Swiss Government also allows other peoples efforts to be rewarded.

Switzerland is a democratic country, which plays an important role supporting the increasing amounts of democratic institutions and values internationally, with also contributions to humanitarian relief and economic development assistance. These policies are taken into account by the United States who have been willing to co-operate with Switzerland’s neutrality.

Switzerland maintains diplomatic relations with almost all countries and throughout the many years, it has serves as a neutral diplomatic intermediary. Switzerland has no major disputes in its bilateral relations with other countries.

The Federal Government and Cantons share political power. Similar to the United States, power that is not appointed to the Federal Government, resides with the cantons that have endured a positive amount of independence within the Federal sector over many years. The third level of Swiss Government is the commune, who decide issues of local importance i.e. construction of roads, bridges.





.1 Structure of the Swiss Legal/Regulatory System

There are two regulatory bodies, which are active in Switzerland

• ComCom (Communication Commission) � This is an extra parliamentary commission whom is designated responsibility of telecommunication licences.

• OFCOM (Office of Communication) � This is the main regulatory body in telecommunications and ICT.

Switzerland’s regulatory and legislative system consists of Swiss Penal Law, The Swiss National Law, The Law on Data Privacy, The telecommunication Law, The Federal Law on Electronic Signature, The Federal Law on E-Commerce and The Ordinance on I.T and Telecommunication Federal Administration Law.





. Reliability of Switzerland as a Trading Partner

Switzerland is the richest country in Europe and is situated in the middle of the world’s largest trading zones. It is also known for being the third largest financial centres in the world. Swiss companies are dependent on their exports but, because they are declining stronger ties with the rest of Europe, it will be harder for them to export products across their borders.

The EU is Switzerland’s largest trading partner with economic and trade barriers at a minimal proportion between them. Switzerland is a small country and it depends on importing raw materials to support its industries. They have to manufacture high quality products with also a combination of superior services.

Switzerland became the leader in development of high tech precision instruments, chemicals, metal, machinery and watch making, closely followed by pharmaceuticals, which are Switzerland’s leading exports.

Switzerland’s trade centres are mostly situated around Europe, which has 60% trade with European countries. 15% of its exports go to undeveloped countries.





. Constitutional Guarantees

Constitutional theory expresses that individuals and states are more likely to agree on equal freedoms and on general constitutional principles if they have to choose long term basic rules from behind a `veil of uncertainty (J. Buchanan). This is what makes it difficult for each country that trades together, to identify the future impact and results of the rules. It makes them consider the long term effects of equity and fairness.

Freedom of Trade and Industry in Switzerland

(1) Freedom of trade and industry is guaranteed throughout the territory of the Confederation, subject to such limitations as are contained in the Federal Constitution and the legislation enacted under its authority. (http//www.legalserviceindia.com/constitution/const_swiz.htm)

() Cantonal regulations concerning the exercise of trade and industry and the taxes on such activities remain unaffected. However, such regulations shall not depart from the principle of freedom of trade and industry except where the Federal Constitution provides otherwise. Cantonal monopolies are likewise excepted. (http//www.legalserviceindia.com/constitution/const_swiz.htm)







.4 Protection of Property Rights

Switzerland has one of the best regimes in the world for the protection of intellectual property. Inclusive is that protection is afforded substantially on equal terms to foreign and domestic rights holders. Switzerland is one of the members of the major international intellectual properly rights convention. She is also an active strong supporter of IPR text on the GATT Uruguay round negotiations.

Switzerland is a member of the European Patent Convention as well as the Patent Co-operation Treaty. In 1, a new copyright law recognises computer software as literary work, which enables monetary rewards for private copying of audio and videos.

If filed in Switzerland, a patent application must be made in one of the countrys three official languages (German, French, and Italian). The application must include detailed specifications and sometimes technical drawings are needed. The patent lasts for 0 years. Renewal fees are payable annually with an increasing of fees. However, patents can not be renewed after the 0 years. There is only an exception to renew the patent for products such as pharmaceuticals, which require an extensive testing period prior to marketing.

The Swiss Patent Law (154) states that the following items cannot be covered by patent protection Surgical, Therapy and Diagnostic Processes for application on humans and animals; inventions liable to disturb law and order.

Patents are not granted for species of plants and animals and biological processes for their breeding. In many other areas, the law in which the patent covers is identical to that in the United States. If an American firm has concerns about possible patent infringement in Switzerland, access to the courts is always available.



.0 Economic Structure and Activities

.1 Labour Market

. Economic Indicators

. Freedom to Establish Partnerships, Licensing Agreements

.4 Exchange Rates





.0 Economic Structure and Activities

The Swiss economy is one of the most advanced and prosperous. The Swiss economy has just about survived the recession, which had occurred in 11. The Swiss market was affected by a slight collapse in the real estate market, which was a damaging factor. The Swiss franc had also been affected and became weak which led forecasters to project satisfactory growth economically to about % for Switzerland in 18.

Swiss companies have a major position to play in world export markets. They specialise in high value-added products such as pharmaceuticals, chemicals, watches, speciality machinery, and gourmet foods such as chocolates and cheeses. Swiss banks and insurance companies are also the main players on the world scene.

Switzerlands largest trading partner is the EU and their economic trade barriers between them are at a minimum. However, the Swiss Governments long-term intention is to join the EU, and the government was rejected in a referendum on the subject of membership in the European Economic Area in late 1.

The debate over EU membership is still existent till this day and those who opposed opinions, stated that the country has not suffered economically by not being a member. This was clearly obvious as the Swiss economy, remains the envy of much of the world. Switzerland has attempted to disperse of any possible adverse effects of non-membership by conforming many of its regulations, standards, and practices to EU directives and norms.

Recent Activities of Switzerland

• CIS-7 Conference in Lucerne - A conference on the seven poorest countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS-7) ended in Lucerne, Switzerland on January , 00 with a call to donors to find ways to increase financial assistance on grant terms to the countries of the CIS-7 (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan).

• The CIS-7 Initiative was launched a year ago to address concerns about the severe economic difficulties, increases in poverty, and rapid build-up of debt in many of the CIS-7 countries since independence in the early 10s.

• The conference, which brought together government and civil society representatives from the CIS-7 as well as the international donor community, broadened and deepened the debate to include a range of economic, institutional and social issues that must be tackled if the seven countries are to achieve the targets of the Millennium Development Goals.

• The Initiatives co-sponsoring agencies will now work with CIS-7 governments, donors and civil society to elaborate follow-up actions on finance and debt relief, ownership and governance, capacity building, and regional integration. [Source ECA News February 00]

• The Third Annual Conference of the Parliamentary Network on the World Bank - Was hosted by the Swiss government in Bern, May -11, 00. The conference was sponsored by SECO (Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs) and held in the Swiss Parliament. More than 100 parliamentarians from over 40 countries participated. (http//wbln0018.worldbank.org/eurvp/web.nsf/Pages/Switzerland-Activities)

• World Bank President, James Wolfensohn visited Switzerland, May -10, 00 - He participated in the Third Annual Conference of the Parliamentary Network on the World Bank, and met with representatives from the Federal Department of Economic Affairs, Federal Department of Foreign Affairs, and the Swiss Agency for Development and Co-operation. He also had a question and answer session with Swiss NGOs (Swiss Coalition of Development Organisations, Bread for All, Helvetas, Swissaid and Berne Declaration) and met with Swiss business leaders. (http//wbln0018.worldbank.org/eurvp/web.nsf/Pages/Switzerland-Activities)

• September -6, 001, Vice President for Europe Jean-François Rischard attended the Sustainability Congress in Bern and met with members of the Swiss Parliament. (http//wbln0018.worldbank.org/eurvp/web.nsf/Pages/Switzerland-Activities)

• June 8, 001, Vice President for Europe Jean-François Rischard gave a keynote speech in the plenary session of the Annual Crans Montana Forum, which took place in Crans Montana, Switzerland. Founded in 18, the Forum meets annually to provide a venue for public and private sector representatives to discuss ways for improving international co-operation and easing the globalisation process in a humanistic way. More than 1,00 participants from 10 countries and organisations attended. (http//wbln0018.worldbank.org/eurvp/web.nsf/Pages/Switzerland-Activities)





.1 Labour Market

The labour market is characterised by upward struggles and the change from an industrial to a service society is having a concise and efficient flow.

The international standards, which Switzerland has, allow a very low unemployment rate, which reflects the above-average flexibility of the Swiss labour market.

It also displays that the Swiss own a tight labour market. The demographic ageing of the population, slower population growth and the trend towards early retirement are adding more pressure on the labour market..

In June 00, Canadas Fraser Institute published its sixth annual report on Economic Freedom of the World. It showed that Switzerland had gained high marks for its liberal economy, in comparison to the growth report issued by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (seco).









. Economic Indicators

Switzerland has one of the most liberal and competitive economies in the world. In the financial services and direct investment departments, Switzerland can match some of the European and global leaders.

Competitiveness, expenditure on research and development, Internet users, are all included in the economic indicators, in which Switzerland occupies a leading position. In cross-border direct investment, the Swiss economy is among the top and is one of the countries which have the highest export rate as a percentage of gross domestic products.

Switzerlands highly developed economy is largely due to its strong alliance’s with the economies of other countries. The technologically advanced industrial sector is characterised by highly specialised, internationally experienced, and flexible small and medium-sized companies. Buying power is very stable which is achieved through traditionally low inflation within the country.

The economic environmental indicators prove that organic farming has a better performance within the market compared with conventional farming which leads to the organic farming system to be more positive to the environment and the country itself.



External Transactions of Commercial Goods and Services

Exports as % of GDP Imports as % of GDP Balance of Trade as % of GDP

15 17 15 17 15 17

Austria 8 4 44 -4 -

Belgium 7 7 68 76 6 5

Denmark 5 41 0 4 4 5

Finland 8 8 0 7 8

France 4 7 1 4 1

Germany 4 8 7

Greece 17 18 7 5 -15 -1

Ireland 75 7 60 7 17 n/a

Italy 8 7 5

Luxembourg 56 81 -10 0

Netherlands 5 68 47 6 5 5

Portugal 0 41 8 -11 -10

Spain 4 8 8 -4 -4

Sweden 41 44 5 8 7 8

UK 8 - -

Norway n/a 8 n/a n/a

Switzerland 40 1 0

Canada 8

USA 11 1 -

Japan 1 11

Albania n/a n/a -6 -10

Bulgaria - 4

Croatia -15 -6

Czech Republic 5 61 -7 -8

Estonia n/a n/a -0 -

Hungary 40 44 -6 -5

Latvia n/a n/a -1 -1

Lithuania -16 -1

Macedonia -1 -18

Poland 6 0 -5 -1

Romania n/a n/a -7 -8

Russia 18 14 6

Slovakia n/a n/a -1 -8

Slovenia -6 -6

Fig .0 External Transactions of Commercial Goods and Services GDP Rates.











Fig . Swiss Franc Past Present and Future





Fig . Bar chart displaying information of organic farming and free range farming.

4.0 Consumer Behaviour

The service industry employs two-thirds of Switzerland’s workforce. The organic food service is the country’s most important economic sector. This Industry is increasingly attracting more of the spotlight of ecological interest than the tertiary sector. Large retailers such as Coop Switzerland and Migros have made dramatic improvements by encouraging environmentally friendly consumer behaviour.



4.1 Size of Markets

The growth of organic farming varies greatly from the mountain regions (ten to thirty per cent of the agricultural area) to the plains (approximately five per cent). All organic farmers belong to the umbrella organisation Bio Suisse (association of Swiss organic farming movements).

Year

organic farms % of all farms total organic land % of agricultural land

180 175

181 06

18 16

18 5

184 86

185 0,0

186 68

187 44

188 485

18 67

10 80 0,87 10.000 0,4

11 40 1.00

1 1.160 17.00

1 1.405 1,0 0.800 1,4

14 1.66 6.100

15 .10 ,80 4.00 ,0

16 .786 4,76 5.400 5,4

17 4.78 5,50 71.70 6,67

18 4.71 6,17 77.84 7,

1 5.07 6,8 8.54 7,7

000 7,50 1.01 8,50

001 5.85 8,50 5.000 8,0

Fig .4 Table displaying information for the growth of total organic markets produced each year

Up to 10, the rate of conversions to organic farming had remained constant for forty years, with annual growth rates of less than ten per cent. During the boom years between 10 and 1, the number of organic farms increased from 800 to 5,000 (table ).

Three factors have influenced this growth

• The consumers’ concern about healthy food

• The agri�environmental policy of the state, which supports organic farms with annual subsidies, and the appearance of organic foods in the two dominant supermarket chains, Coop and Migros.

Branch

Total Production Organic Production

(absolute / relative)

Milk ,867,000 tons 10,500 tons (.7%)

Beef 110,00 tons ,811 tons (.5%)

Pork 1,800 tons ,4 tons (1.1%)

Poultry 40,84 tons 1 tons (1%)

Eggs 61,400,000 eggs 5,000,000 eggs (5.1%)

Wheat 584,400 tons 6,11 tons (1.1%)

Potatoes 687,000 tons 11,564 tons (1.7%)

Vegetables 85,000 (8,475 ha) 800 ha (.4%)

Apples 14,81 tons ,700 tons (1.%)

Wine 1,045,000 hl

(14,1 ha) 178 ha (1.%)

Fig..5 Share of Organic Products in the Different Branches of Production

(Source FiBL, Based on the latest figures from 17, 18 or 1)



4. Access To Media

Television

Switzerland has at least six terrestrial TV stations available everywhere offering an undemanding diet of chat shows, game shows, made-for-TV movies and lots of local news and local interest programming.

Radio

Switzerland has more than forty local radio stations catering to various communities around the country. Swiss Radio International broadcasts news and analysis in English on short wave at 6.165MHz at breakfast time and the evening and at .55MHz at lunchtime, and is also on cable.

The Press

Switzerland has more than 00 newspapers nation-wide. It also has parochial local newssheets, reporting Cantonal and municipal affairs in some detail.

CableCom CableCom are a leading telephone information Service Provider and an inbound telemarketing consultant specialising in large volume call handling applications for both the United Kingdom and World-wide.

Fox Switzerland Fox Switzerland, 0th Century Fox Film Corp..

Micom Mediaagentur Micom Mediaagentur - Mediaagentur fuer innovative kommunikation

Swiss Broadcasting Corporation Swiss Broadcasting Corporation, TV & radio

Swiss Business News A comprehensive guide to the Business News of Switzerland

Swiss Info Swiss Info provide news from Switzerland and around the world

Swisscom Swiss telecom, yellow pages, web services & much more



4. Transportation and Communication

• Direct motorway access to Geneva International Airport (50 min).

• Close proximity to France, Italy and Germany.

• State-of-the-art wireline and cellular telecom links with worldwide coverage.

• Sophisticated technologies for transmission via fibre optics, satellite, microwave, etc.

4.4 Distribution

The market for organic food is growing by twenty per cent per year. It reached 580 million Swiss francs (60 million Euro) in 1, which represented almost two per cent of the total food market. (Dr. Urs Niggli, Research Institute of Organic Agriculture, 001)

The retailer Coop, with a market share of thirty-two per cent of the Swiss food market, is already making four per cent of its food turnover with organic products. The retailer Migros, with a market share of thirty-six per cent, is making 1.8 per cent of its food turnover in organic foods.

The distribution efforts of the two dominant supermarket chains Coop and Migros, Swiss consumers are comprehensively supplied with organic food and the assortment is almost complete.



Please note that this sample paper on Market Analysis on Switzerlands Economy is for your review only. In order to eliminate any of the plagiarism issues, it is highly recommended that you do not use it for you own writing purposes. In case you experience difficulties with writing a well structured and accurately composed paper on Market Analysis on Switzerlands Economy, we are here to assist you. Your cheap custom college paper on Market Analysis on Switzerlands Economy will be written from scratch, so you do not have to worry about its originality.

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